Self-deception is a game we often play. It can be tricky as we have to be both the deceiver and the deceived. But many today seem very capable of this feat. But in order to achieve this deception we must both know something and not know it all at the same time.
Nevertheless, deceiving oneself is more of a way of being hopeful, or raising ones expectations, of wishfully thinking of what could be.
On the other hand, self-deception can be compared to a totalitarian regime in that a person is willing to rewrite their own history and change facts to portray themselves as everything wonderful, good, capable, faultless, blameless and beyond guile.
There are 3 main illusions or traits that people participate in to achieve this perfect illusion:
1. People overestimate their successes and downplay their failures and bad traits.
2. People overestimate the amount of control they have in their decision making...taking credit where non is due.
3. People are too optimistic in the fact that only good things will happen to them.
It is remarkable that we can manage to deceive ourselves into believing our own self-deception. It seems to be an American ideal today. Possibly we are not only deceiving ourselves on how great and good we are, but maybe as a Nation we are deceiving ourselves that we are as strong and as infallible as we would like to think we are.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Could Totalitarianism Come to America?
Does totalitarianism look different in different regimes? What would a totalitarian regime look like in America? What would the object of perfection be? As we think back to the occurrences of 9/11/2001, we can see the many changes that have occurred in our country in the last ten years. It appears that the loss of our rights are given up in order to have the illusion of safety. We have given up our rights, for safety sake. Is freedom being taken away in the name of security? Has the meaning of America changed from the land of the brave, to the land of the safe? These were the questions asked in the introduction to Totalitarianism. It is gonna be a very interesting journey. We will study the aspects of totalitarianism from history in Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union. Then we will apply the ideologies and take a good, hard look at America.
Monday, September 5, 2011
A Return To The Gold Standard?
More Wikileaks are being released and I will once again quote Gold Anti-Trust Committee. Gold is at new record highs $1909.70 up $35. The Dow Futures are down for tomorrows opening at 283 pts south.
"More news media-monitoring cables from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington show that both China's government and the nation's financial press, tightly controlled by the government, consider gold to be the main weapon in a world currency war that is under way.
The additional cables, published a few days ago by Wikileaks and located by GATA's Irish friend R.M., disclose that China thinks that the United States is trying to prevent China's foreign exchange surplus from being converted into gold because the U.S. and its European allies plan a return to a gold standard that will favor them because they hold most of the world's gold reserves.
China itself has acknowledged that it is rapidly building its own gold reserves to facilitate international use of its currency, the renminbi. (China's currency)
The citation of the gold-related commentaries by the U.S. embassy cables suggests that China's acquisition of gold is of great concern to the U.S. government as well."
"This time the quick change of the U.S. policy (toward China) has surprised quite a few people. The U.S. has almost used all deterring means, besides military means, against China. China must be clear on discovering what the U.S. goals are behind its tough stances against China. In fact, a fierce competition between the currencies of big countries has just started. A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its crisis to other countries -- by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible to prevent China's foreign reserve from buying gold. The nature of such behavior is a rogue lawyer's behavior of 'ripping off both sides': taking advantage of cross-strait divergences, blackmailing the Taiwan people's wealth by selling arms to Taiwan, and meanwhile coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and extorting wealth from the mainland's people. If we [China] use all of our foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, then when someday the U.S. Federal Reserve suddenly announces that the original 10 old U.S. dollars are now worth only one new U.S. dollar and the new U.S. dollar is pegged to the gold, we will be dumbfounded. Today when the United States is determined to beggar thy neighbor, shifting its crisis to China, the Chinese must be very clear what the key to victory is. It is by no means to use new foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. The issues of Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, trade, and so on are all false tricks, while forcing China to buy U.S. bonds is the U.S.'s real intention." (gata.org, 9-5-2011)
In my studies regarding the fall of the Ming Dynasty and the beginning of the Qing (Ch'ing) Dynasty which was the rule of a foreign power, the Manchu, there were 5 key things that contributed to the decline:
1. The cost of defending Korea against Japan.
2. China paid large amounts of money to the Mongols to keep them from attacking (again).
3. The expense of Grand Construction Projects to repel Japan. (The Great Wall is really many Great Walls not just one)
4. The Ming Dynasty was dependent on International commercial trade. It traded porcelain and silk for silver. When the silver dried up so did China's money.
5. China had no monetary reserves to fall back on causing a severe financial crisis that undermined their defense.
Can similarities be drawn from the decline and fall of a great empire and our own empire of today? Are we making the same mistakes today that have caused failures in the past? Is China wiser today because of its history? Read the article above from GATA and make your own conclusions. Go to GATA and read more. http://www.gata.org
"More news media-monitoring cables from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington show that both China's government and the nation's financial press, tightly controlled by the government, consider gold to be the main weapon in a world currency war that is under way.
The additional cables, published a few days ago by Wikileaks and located by GATA's Irish friend R.M., disclose that China thinks that the United States is trying to prevent China's foreign exchange surplus from being converted into gold because the U.S. and its European allies plan a return to a gold standard that will favor them because they hold most of the world's gold reserves.
China itself has acknowledged that it is rapidly building its own gold reserves to facilitate international use of its currency, the renminbi. (China's currency)
The citation of the gold-related commentaries by the U.S. embassy cables suggests that China's acquisition of gold is of great concern to the U.S. government as well."
"This time the quick change of the U.S. policy (toward China) has surprised quite a few people. The U.S. has almost used all deterring means, besides military means, against China. China must be clear on discovering what the U.S. goals are behind its tough stances against China. In fact, a fierce competition between the currencies of big countries has just started. A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its crisis to other countries -- by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible to prevent China's foreign reserve from buying gold. The nature of such behavior is a rogue lawyer's behavior of 'ripping off both sides': taking advantage of cross-strait divergences, blackmailing the Taiwan people's wealth by selling arms to Taiwan, and meanwhile coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and extorting wealth from the mainland's people. If we [China] use all of our foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, then when someday the U.S. Federal Reserve suddenly announces that the original 10 old U.S. dollars are now worth only one new U.S. dollar and the new U.S. dollar is pegged to the gold, we will be dumbfounded. Today when the United States is determined to beggar thy neighbor, shifting its crisis to China, the Chinese must be very clear what the key to victory is. It is by no means to use new foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. The issues of Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, trade, and so on are all false tricks, while forcing China to buy U.S. bonds is the U.S.'s real intention." (gata.org, 9-5-2011)
In my studies regarding the fall of the Ming Dynasty and the beginning of the Qing (Ch'ing) Dynasty which was the rule of a foreign power, the Manchu, there were 5 key things that contributed to the decline:
1. The cost of defending Korea against Japan.
2. China paid large amounts of money to the Mongols to keep them from attacking (again).
3. The expense of Grand Construction Projects to repel Japan. (The Great Wall is really many Great Walls not just one)
4. The Ming Dynasty was dependent on International commercial trade. It traded porcelain and silk for silver. When the silver dried up so did China's money.
5. China had no monetary reserves to fall back on causing a severe financial crisis that undermined their defense.
Can similarities be drawn from the decline and fall of a great empire and our own empire of today? Are we making the same mistakes today that have caused failures in the past? Is China wiser today because of its history? Read the article above from GATA and make your own conclusions. Go to GATA and read more. http://www.gata.org
Sunday, September 4, 2011
The latest Wikileaks is About GOLD
This is information that you really should know and try hard to understand. This is quoted exactly from the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee which got their information from none other than a Wiki-leak. The recession is coming (if not already here). This is the one thing you can count on to hedge your bet against the hard times ahead.
China knows that the U.S. government and its allies in Western Europe strive to suppress the price of gold, and the U.S. government knows that China knows, according to a 2009 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington.
The cable, published in the latest batch of U.S. State Department cables obtained by Wikileaks, summarizes several commentaries in Chinese news media on April 28, 2009. One of those commentaries is attributed to the Chinese newspaper Shijie Xinwenbao (World News Journal), published by the Chinese government's foreign radio service, China Radio International. The cable's summary reads:
"According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration, China's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the United States and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi." (The renminbi is the official currency of the People's Republic of China)
"Wondering why gold at $1,850 is cheap, or why gold at double that price will also be cheap, or, frankly, at any price? Because, as the following leaked cable explains, gold is, to China at least, nothing but the opportunity cost of destroying the dollar's reserve status. Putting that into dollar terms is, therefore, impractical at best and illogical at worst. We have a suspicion that the following cable from the U.S. embassy in China is about to go not viral but very much global, and prompt all those mutual fund managers who are on the golden sidelines to dip a toe in the 24-karat pool."
Gold is money! If you would like to visit GATA or receive emails from them their address is:
http://www.gata.org
THE BEST RECESSION HEDGE IS GOLD. BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD!
China knows that the U.S. government and its allies in Western Europe strive to suppress the price of gold, and the U.S. government knows that China knows, according to a 2009 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington.
The cable, published in the latest batch of U.S. State Department cables obtained by Wikileaks, summarizes several commentaries in Chinese news media on April 28, 2009. One of those commentaries is attributed to the Chinese newspaper Shijie Xinwenbao (World News Journal), published by the Chinese government's foreign radio service, China Radio International. The cable's summary reads:
"According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration, China's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the United States and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi." (The renminbi is the official currency of the People's Republic of China)
"Wondering why gold at $1,850 is cheap, or why gold at double that price will also be cheap, or, frankly, at any price? Because, as the following leaked cable explains, gold is, to China at least, nothing but the opportunity cost of destroying the dollar's reserve status. Putting that into dollar terms is, therefore, impractical at best and illogical at worst. We have a suspicion that the following cable from the U.S. embassy in China is about to go not viral but very much global, and prompt all those mutual fund managers who are on the golden sidelines to dip a toe in the 24-karat pool."
Gold is money! If you would like to visit GATA or receive emails from them their address is:
http://www.gata.org
THE BEST RECESSION HEDGE IS GOLD. BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD!
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Midnight at Noon
Krakatoa was an island the size of Manhattan in the Pacific. On a Monday morning that must have seemed like any other, a series of powerful volcano eruptions occurred in 1883. It blew so much tephra (magna, rock and ash) into the air that it looked like a nuclear bomb had exploded. It had the force of 150 megatons of TNT. The airwave traveling at the speed of sound, traveled all around the world, bouncing back and forth seven times. The audible sounds traveled further than any sound in recorded history.
The magna, ash, and rock reached up 4 miles and then plummeted down into the ocean causing a tsunami 130 feet high. The wave hit Java and Sumatra, taking whole villages and killing over 40,000 people.
The residue of sulfuric-acid stayed in the stratosphere for several years causing what was called "Bishop's Rings" around the sun with brilliant red color.
An officer on an American ship recorded in his logbook that "a heavy black cloud was rising up from Krakatau Island...with the wind increasing to a hurricane, gradually it grew dark until it was midnight at noon, with a heavy shower of ash that grew so thick it was difficult to breathe and it had a strong smell of sulfur...all expecting that the last days of the earth had come!"
Storms come upon us all. Some come suddenly without warning as it did in Japan and sometimes it comes with warning like our friends on the East Coast. Hopefully, one has time to prepare but often there is no time. When such tragedy is felt it is as if it is midnight at noon for a very long time.
The magna, ash, and rock reached up 4 miles and then plummeted down into the ocean causing a tsunami 130 feet high. The wave hit Java and Sumatra, taking whole villages and killing over 40,000 people.
The residue of sulfuric-acid stayed in the stratosphere for several years causing what was called "Bishop's Rings" around the sun with brilliant red color.
An officer on an American ship recorded in his logbook that "a heavy black cloud was rising up from Krakatau Island...with the wind increasing to a hurricane, gradually it grew dark until it was midnight at noon, with a heavy shower of ash that grew so thick it was difficult to breathe and it had a strong smell of sulfur...all expecting that the last days of the earth had come!"
Storms come upon us all. Some come suddenly without warning as it did in Japan and sometimes it comes with warning like our friends on the East Coast. Hopefully, one has time to prepare but often there is no time. When such tragedy is felt it is as if it is midnight at noon for a very long time.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Social Control is Circular
Raymond Bauer was a psychologist in the 50's and 60's that wrote on the "attitude of the Soviet Union towards science" and the general characteristics of totalitarianism (1957). Accordingly, he asserted that the totalitarian society is system which the basic social order of men and institutions must be aligned to the State's goals. Scientists had the dual problem of their allegiance to the independent community of science and the needs of the totalitarian state. Therefore, it was not easy nor even possible to challenge the existing ideology.
The science of the State was two fold: act control and thought control. For the Communists, action and thought were the same and the coordinator of act and thought was the Party. This was developed as the suppression and advancement of linking these together by the scientific justification of Lenin's Tailism. Tailism is the term for just hanging onto history by the tail instead of taking the bull by the horns and shaping it.
Bauer argued that every "scientific theory is affect by the social order in which the scientists work." Therefore, it becomes circular, as the theory is direct by the social and the social is directed by the theory and in fact they are one and the same. They are directly related and informed by each other. And both are determined by the guidance (which was sudden and full of terror) by the Party.
The science of the State was two fold: act control and thought control. For the Communists, action and thought were the same and the coordinator of act and thought was the Party. This was developed as the suppression and advancement of linking these together by the scientific justification of Lenin's Tailism. Tailism is the term for just hanging onto history by the tail instead of taking the bull by the horns and shaping it.
Bauer argued that every "scientific theory is affect by the social order in which the scientists work." Therefore, it becomes circular, as the theory is direct by the social and the social is directed by the theory and in fact they are one and the same. They are directly related and informed by each other. And both are determined by the guidance (which was sudden and full of terror) by the Party.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Revolving Doors with SEC & Wall St and a few other facts
William Cohen (Investigative Reporter and author of House of Cards) announced on Bloomberg August 29th, that while Hurricane Irene raged, the SEC was destroying records and investigative files. More than 9,000 files were destroyed involving investigations into Goldman Sachs, Bernie Madoff, Lehman Brothers and many others involved with Wall Street. Cohen stated that there is a revolving door with the SEC and Wall Street. He said there are 220 former SEC employees that now work on Wall Street. He said this is unhealthy as they are totally beholden to each other. Close the doors on the SEC and start over is Cohen's advice!
During the month of August, 5 Trillion was lost on global equities. (Reported on Bloomberg)
Norm Roubini said the US has 60% chance of going into recession. (Reported on Bloomberg)
I just thought you should know that now is a very good time to buy gold as it has dropped to $1821 oz. Remember it is always good to buy on the down slope. It will go up again soon enough. Protect your money by investing in gold.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Rationalism for The New World Order
Modern:
Rationalism is defined (today) as using reason as the source of knowledge but it is considered to be more of a method which truth is intellectual and deductive. Rationalism is more a matter of a way to solve problems, not by tradition or experience but as a technique and an engineering. But what does this really mean. Rationalism is not to be confused with being rational or rationality.
Historical:
It is an ideology that came out of the Renaissance in the 1600's. Bacon felt that knowledge was not advancing fast enough and he set about to formulate a new method of inquiry. Bacon believed that natural reason was lacking certainty. Therefore, he argued that the whole system of gaining knowledge must start fresh, that the mind shouldn't be allowed to take its own path but needed to be guided at every step. It required a "sure plan, a new way of understanding, an art or method of inquiry." Thus, he formulated that there must be a technique to inquiry. Bacon recommended 3 characteristics of inquiry:
1. A set of rules. A precise set of directions.
2. The set of rules needs to be purely mechanical as if done by machinery, no knowledge needed except of that technique.
3. The set of rules needed to be universal, that is indifferent to subject matter of inquiry.
The rules of discovery would begin anew with a new foundation. By first purging the mind and thus the new instrument (Novum Organum) was developed.
Character:
Out of the ideas developed a new character, an intellectual type that is the Rationalist. As such the Rationalist have taken Bacon and Descartes as their intellectual guide but have also continued to add and advance their ideolgy and methodology farther. Today the Rationalist can be left or right, conservative or liberal. Nevertheless, they all believe in the same methods or techniques to obtain truth. Basically, the Scientific Method and Statistics.
Politically Speaking:
For the rationalist the way to soliving problems is not through reason, tradition or philosophy but more a matter of engineering and applying the right technique (Political Science). It is the politics of the determined need of the moment. The crisis of the moment is now the nature of politics. Not with the view of the future but only the needs of today. The Laws are not built on our past traditional moorings but are started fresh and decided anew.
Rationalism is defined (today) as using reason as the source of knowledge but it is considered to be more of a method which truth is intellectual and deductive. Rationalism is more a matter of a way to solve problems, not by tradition or experience but as a technique and an engineering. But what does this really mean. Rationalism is not to be confused with being rational or rationality.
Historical:
It is an ideology that came out of the Renaissance in the 1600's. Bacon felt that knowledge was not advancing fast enough and he set about to formulate a new method of inquiry. Bacon believed that natural reason was lacking certainty. Therefore, he argued that the whole system of gaining knowledge must start fresh, that the mind shouldn't be allowed to take its own path but needed to be guided at every step. It required a "sure plan, a new way of understanding, an art or method of inquiry." Thus, he formulated that there must be a technique to inquiry. Bacon recommended 3 characteristics of inquiry:
1. A set of rules. A precise set of directions.
2. The set of rules needs to be purely mechanical as if done by machinery, no knowledge needed except of that technique.
3. The set of rules needed to be universal, that is indifferent to subject matter of inquiry.
The rules of discovery would begin anew with a new foundation. By first purging the mind and thus the new instrument (Novum Organum) was developed.
Character:
Out of the ideas developed a new character, an intellectual type that is the Rationalist. As such the Rationalist have taken Bacon and Descartes as their intellectual guide but have also continued to add and advance their ideolgy and methodology farther. Today the Rationalist can be left or right, conservative or liberal. Nevertheless, they all believe in the same methods or techniques to obtain truth. Basically, the Scientific Method and Statistics.
Politically Speaking:
For the rationalist the way to soliving problems is not through reason, tradition or philosophy but more a matter of engineering and applying the right technique (Political Science). It is the politics of the determined need of the moment. The crisis of the moment is now the nature of politics. Not with the view of the future but only the needs of today. The Laws are not built on our past traditional moorings but are started fresh and decided anew.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Ever Learning
I love to learn. And I especially love to learn what I am interested in. I am an Information Seeker. I am a hunter and gather of information that I deem important. I want to understand the world I live in, present, past and most definitely the future. I do believe that the past informs us on our future. I spend most of my time in study and thought. I get easily bored with the mundane and common. I love to study hard stuff that I have to chew on awhile to fully understand. So one will understand that I am both excited and fearful as I begin a new semester at the University. My courses are all extremely difficult and I hope my mind will grasp the many new avenues that I will traverse. My posts will discuss things I am learning in class, and through my readings. It should be enlightening and informing as well. So be prepared for some controversial information coming your way and hopefully you, as well as I, will learn some new things about the past regimes of fascism, socialism, totalitarianism, Asian Pacific Countries, behavioral statistics, and hopefully some more social psychology. And as ever, I will still have an eye on the markets and financial occurrences that can affect us all.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
How We Know What Is True
According to psychological statistics the goal of science and psychology is to know what is true. They teach that the way of knowing what is true is by applying statistics and the use of the Scientific
Method. There are 3 main ways or methods of knowing:
Authority: Which is based on some other person's ideas or beliefs. Can be based on tradition or trust of a person or expert.
Rationalism: This method is based on reason and/or logic. It is the assumption that if the premises are true then the conclusions are true.
Intuition: This is based on our beliefs, faith, hunches, and feelings of what is true. There is no evidence that is required and conflicting evidence is just discarded.
But the scientific explanation of truth requires that the Scientific Method is applied to test truth:
1. Empirical: based on experiment that can be repeated to get the same result.
2. Rational: it must be logical, and go along with known facts.
3. Testable: that the idea in question can be verified.
4. Parsimonious: that the results are the least complex explanation with the fewest assumptions possible.
5. General: it should apply to a variety of related circumstances, not just the one that is being examined.
6. Tentative: the results are open to revision and replacement if a more accurate explanation is developed.
7. Rigorously Evaluated: constantly evaluated in lew of new evidence.
Thus, according to science and the experts this method of testing truth is preferable to belief, common sense, rational explanation and logic. This might explain why truth is so fluid and ever changing. But shouldn't truth based on whatever method just remain true because it is true?
Method. There are 3 main ways or methods of knowing:
Authority: Which is based on some other person's ideas or beliefs. Can be based on tradition or trust of a person or expert.
Rationalism: This method is based on reason and/or logic. It is the assumption that if the premises are true then the conclusions are true.
Intuition: This is based on our beliefs, faith, hunches, and feelings of what is true. There is no evidence that is required and conflicting evidence is just discarded.
But the scientific explanation of truth requires that the Scientific Method is applied to test truth:
1. Empirical: based on experiment that can be repeated to get the same result.
2. Rational: it must be logical, and go along with known facts.
3. Testable: that the idea in question can be verified.
4. Parsimonious: that the results are the least complex explanation with the fewest assumptions possible.
5. General: it should apply to a variety of related circumstances, not just the one that is being examined.
6. Tentative: the results are open to revision and replacement if a more accurate explanation is developed.
7. Rigorously Evaluated: constantly evaluated in lew of new evidence.
Thus, according to science and the experts this method of testing truth is preferable to belief, common sense, rational explanation and logic. This might explain why truth is so fluid and ever changing. But shouldn't truth based on whatever method just remain true because it is true?
Friday, August 26, 2011
Surveillance as Power
Foucault (French Philosopher) turned the idea that knowledge is power to an expansive idea that "power is knowledge." He believed that power has access to knowledge of many kinds. Foucault asserted that power and knowledge were so inseparable that he linked the two words together power/knowledge.
In his book Discipline and Punish (1975) he investigated punishment and separated it into 3 separate periods and forms:
1. Gruesome executions that was meted out by a centralized government and legitimized by the general population.
2. An abhorrence to previous eras of gruesome punishment, to the 19c of a transformation of use of power through technology. This new phase introduced punishment based on surveillance and discipline. Physical punishment was replaced according to Foucault with technologies of observation aimed at the mind rather than the body. Though less painful, it is deceitful as it proceeds inconspicuous and can be more intimidating. Foucault contends that social institutions rely of technologies of surveillance and is thus "taken-for-granted" as just part of the system.
3. Foucault's last phase of punishment is in a postmodern world that has advanced and developed new forms of power/knowledge through scientific discoveries, educational necessities for employment, psychotherapy, and pharmacology's that now generates new was of applications for power and control.
This explanation of Foucault's theory of surveillance as a means of punishments and control just needs a little bit of thought to grasp the significance of what he has asserted. Foucault was a modern man having died in 1985 at the age of 57. He saw the tip of our advanced technological times. It is necessary to look at the use of each new development in our day and ask yourself can this be used as a form of surveillance? And if so, who is doing the surveillance? And why? It all seems so harmless today. But will it remain so?
In his book Discipline and Punish (1975) he investigated punishment and separated it into 3 separate periods and forms:
1. Gruesome executions that was meted out by a centralized government and legitimized by the general population.
2. An abhorrence to previous eras of gruesome punishment, to the 19c of a transformation of use of power through technology. This new phase introduced punishment based on surveillance and discipline. Physical punishment was replaced according to Foucault with technologies of observation aimed at the mind rather than the body. Though less painful, it is deceitful as it proceeds inconspicuous and can be more intimidating. Foucault contends that social institutions rely of technologies of surveillance and is thus "taken-for-granted" as just part of the system.
3. Foucault's last phase of punishment is in a postmodern world that has advanced and developed new forms of power/knowledge through scientific discoveries, educational necessities for employment, psychotherapy, and pharmacology's that now generates new was of applications for power and control.
This explanation of Foucault's theory of surveillance as a means of punishments and control just needs a little bit of thought to grasp the significance of what he has asserted. Foucault was a modern man having died in 1985 at the age of 57. He saw the tip of our advanced technological times. It is necessary to look at the use of each new development in our day and ask yourself can this be used as a form of surveillance? And if so, who is doing the surveillance? And why? It all seems so harmless today. But will it remain so?
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Surveillance and You
There has been many changes in the U.S. since 9/11. One of the most terrifying of these changes is the surveillance that we are under no matter where we go. I can barely leave my home before the first camera picks me up at the first stop light. I remember when the first surveillance cameras began to show up. I read an article by our then Mayor Billings that said the cameras on every corner was to promote more efficient flow of traffic. But that never seemed to be the case. Traffic remained slow and congested. Then cameras where everywhere. I would sit at a restaurant and see that there was camera pointed straight at me. (And I was taught that it is rude to stare!)
Surveillance is suppose to be the price we pay to be kept safe in our paternalist world. But according to Michael Foucault, the french philosopher, it serves an entirely different purpose. His argument was that when a society is continually being watched that it puts everyone on their best behavior and creates a "self disciplinary society." Foucault thought that to be "visible is to be trapped." He further stated that there will not need to be social structures or specific institutions of power but instead "power will be destructured and individualized, free-floating within society in multiple manifestations."
The invisible power is watching, collecting data and information about us, documenting and recording and saving it for what....? It is an odd thought to know that we are watched on camera, the Internet, our phones, our car GPS, through our purchases, school and work and yet we do not know who has access to this information or what they are doing with it. We know that Google is tracking and saving our every search and our emails. And Facebook's social networking allows them to have access to all your photos, family and friend connections. This is all different forms of surveillance and monitoring that did not even exist a few years ago. I just wonder what all this means and where we are heading in the future. Smile! You are on candid camera!
Surveillance is suppose to be the price we pay to be kept safe in our paternalist world. But according to Michael Foucault, the french philosopher, it serves an entirely different purpose. His argument was that when a society is continually being watched that it puts everyone on their best behavior and creates a "self disciplinary society." Foucault thought that to be "visible is to be trapped." He further stated that there will not need to be social structures or specific institutions of power but instead "power will be destructured and individualized, free-floating within society in multiple manifestations."
The invisible power is watching, collecting data and information about us, documenting and recording and saving it for what....? It is an odd thought to know that we are watched on camera, the Internet, our phones, our car GPS, through our purchases, school and work and yet we do not know who has access to this information or what they are doing with it. We know that Google is tracking and saving our every search and our emails. And Facebook's social networking allows them to have access to all your photos, family and friend connections. This is all different forms of surveillance and monitoring that did not even exist a few years ago. I just wonder what all this means and where we are heading in the future. Smile! You are on candid camera!
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The Foolish Mistake Maker
The foolish mistake maker is someone that processes information badly. Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler in Nudge call these people the Homers. It was decidedly more interesting to study people that do foolish, self-destructive, and irrational things than to show that people are sensible and most often do decent and good things. Therefore, it has become popular to characterize the thoughts and actions of regular people as "stupid, biased and counterproductive" (Finkel, 2010). By concentrating and exposing the dumb things people do, it leads to publication and career advancement. That is why all the research and studies are designed to show people as "fools, suckers, and hypocrites" (2010).
Another trick of the trade is to show people as lazy and always taking the easiest path without thought or reflection. It isn't that this is always the case but studies are set up to search out and prove a particular point that has been set forth by the researcher.
Polls are also designed by highly educated people that know how to ask the questions to get the answers that they want. We live in a highly sophisticated world of experts that know exactly how to lead the audience to behave like Homers and be manipulated in the direction the choice architects want. It is everywhere. It is done everyday. And in order to not be taken in, it is necessary to think and pay attention. If we did that...then who would be the foolish mistake maker...us or them?
Another trick of the trade is to show people as lazy and always taking the easiest path without thought or reflection. It isn't that this is always the case but studies are set up to search out and prove a particular point that has been set forth by the researcher.
Polls are also designed by highly educated people that know how to ask the questions to get the answers that they want. We live in a highly sophisticated world of experts that know exactly how to lead the audience to behave like Homers and be manipulated in the direction the choice architects want. It is everywhere. It is done everyday. And in order to not be taken in, it is necessary to think and pay attention. If we did that...then who would be the foolish mistake maker...us or them?
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
ALGORITHMS, the Makets and Movies
I love movies. But lately I find it very hard to find a movie I enjoy. I have wondered who is writing this stuff? I search through my full cable line-up of channels and think to myself who is selecting our movie viewing? Then I came across a very informative article on BBC News that made sense to me. It is called When Algorithms Control The World. This is an excellent read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14306146
In brief the article states that algorithms are codes that are created and then set-out on their own, without supervision and is reaching further into our lives then we know and then they can control. It is reported by the BBC that algorithms are predicting what movies to make or not. It is even predicting which stars to place in the movies. I thought of this as I tried to watch the newly released movie THE BEAVER. Now I thought the plot sounded ridiculous but with Mel Gibson and Jodie Foster I thought I would give it a try anyway. I must admit I couldn't watch the whole thing so it is possible (though hard to fathom) that the movie pulled out at the end. The movie was a complete insult to anyone with any kind of intelligence whatsoever. It was beyond belief. Only a non-person could decide to make this movie. Imagine this: Mel Gibson passing out cards to family and co-workers that they shouldn't talk to him directly but only to the BEAVER puppet on his hand. I can't say anymore.
Another incident concerning algorithms occurred on Bloomberg right after the 5.9 earthquake hit the East Coast. Matt Miller reported that copy is sent to the computers of what they are saying (in code of course) that human eyes can't see. He said when the computers (which control 70% of market trades) read earthquake that the market dropped significantly and then came back shortly with steep gains.
Back to the BBC article that concluded with the idea that maybe we are giving too much uncontrollable power to algorithms. Wakefield suggests that maybe we should figure out exactly how much these algorithms know and try to tame them before it is too late.
In brief the article states that algorithms are codes that are created and then set-out on their own, without supervision and is reaching further into our lives then we know and then they can control. It is reported by the BBC that algorithms are predicting what movies to make or not. It is even predicting which stars to place in the movies. I thought of this as I tried to watch the newly released movie THE BEAVER. Now I thought the plot sounded ridiculous but with Mel Gibson and Jodie Foster I thought I would give it a try anyway. I must admit I couldn't watch the whole thing so it is possible (though hard to fathom) that the movie pulled out at the end. The movie was a complete insult to anyone with any kind of intelligence whatsoever. It was beyond belief. Only a non-person could decide to make this movie. Imagine this: Mel Gibson passing out cards to family and co-workers that they shouldn't talk to him directly but only to the BEAVER puppet on his hand. I can't say anymore.
Another incident concerning algorithms occurred on Bloomberg right after the 5.9 earthquake hit the East Coast. Matt Miller reported that copy is sent to the computers of what they are saying (in code of course) that human eyes can't see. He said when the computers (which control 70% of market trades) read earthquake that the market dropped significantly and then came back shortly with steep gains.
Back to the BBC article that concluded with the idea that maybe we are giving too much uncontrollable power to algorithms. Wakefield suggests that maybe we should figure out exactly how much these algorithms know and try to tame them before it is too late.
Monday, August 22, 2011
GOLD The Ultimate Perservation of Wealth
GOLD is the one safe haven that investors, small and large, can trust. No matter what occurs in world markets, gold will ALWAYS have intrinsic value which is more than we can say about bank shares! GOLD has risen 34% this month while banks shares have dropped on average 20% and Bank of America has dropped 34% this month (ouch!). GOLD has hit a new record high today (August 22) of $1910.
Here is a breakdown of how long it has taken for GOLD to hit $100 jumps:
It took 58 days for GOLD to jump from $1400 to $1500.
It took 89 days for GOLD to jump from $1500 to $1600.
It only took 21 days for GOLD to jumped from $1600 to $1700.
It was only 10 days for GOLD to jumped from $1700 to $1800.
And believe it or not, only 5 days to sky rocket from $1800 to $1900. (European Bloomberg News)
Stocks are gaining (barely) with high hopes that Bernanke will implement QE3. Most economists think this is not a good idea due to the already record low of the dollar. Some feel that QE3 would push the dollar to a record worth of $70 to the Yen!
Nobel Laureates are meeting in Lindau, Germany to discuss the state of the world and what the economists think it would take to solve the worlds current crisis (including U.S. Recession, Exposure, Libya, & China). Link to listen to the lectures:
http://lindau-nobel.org/LecturesOnline.AxCMS?ActiveID=1173
Therefore, it is true that all that glitters today is GOLD. GOLD may still be cheap at $1900.
Here is a breakdown of how long it has taken for GOLD to hit $100 jumps:
It took 58 days for GOLD to jump from $1400 to $1500.
It took 89 days for GOLD to jump from $1500 to $1600.
It only took 21 days for GOLD to jumped from $1600 to $1700.
It was only 10 days for GOLD to jumped from $1700 to $1800.
And believe it or not, only 5 days to sky rocket from $1800 to $1900. (European Bloomberg News)
Stocks are gaining (barely) with high hopes that Bernanke will implement QE3. Most economists think this is not a good idea due to the already record low of the dollar. Some feel that QE3 would push the dollar to a record worth of $70 to the Yen!
Nobel Laureates are meeting in Lindau, Germany to discuss the state of the world and what the economists think it would take to solve the worlds current crisis (including U.S. Recession, Exposure, Libya, & China). Link to listen to the lectures:
http://lindau-nobel.org/LecturesOnline.AxCMS?ActiveID=1173
Therefore, it is true that all that glitters today is GOLD. GOLD may still be cheap at $1900.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
The Information Seeker
The Information Seeker theory develops the idea that it is important and helpful for people to understand the world they live in. People are constantly gathering information and storing it for future use. People need to understand their environment in order to prepare for and predict events that might come their way. The information that is gathered is both physical and social. The social aspect can more highly more difficult to understand and predict, as people are always in the process of change. Another aspect of this theory is gathering information about oneself. This can be as helpful as it is difficult. As mentioned previously in other posts, people give themselves the benefit of doubt. People tend to attribute their own behavior in a favorable light, giving credit to themselves due to their enduring traits or good choices. Or they will explain their bad behavior on external circumstances. But when it come to others behavior they are not so generous. Nevertheless, the Information Seeker (which we all are) are busy being curious, while trying to learn and understand to make coping in an uncertain world, a little bit more certain.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
The Self-Esteem Maximizer
People try to protect and increase their self-esteem. We have been taught in all grades at school the importance of high self-esteem. Schools and organizations go out of their way to create and promote self-esteem. We find that people will do many things to maintain a favorable view of themselves and will strive to not appear inconsistent because that makes one look bad.
The Self-Esteem Maximizer seeks above everything else to avoid losing their self-esteem. They fear anything that will make them look in a bad or that could make others create a poor opinion. Therefore, people will avoid certain situations or certain people that might cause them to have to reappraise their high self-regard. This is one cause of aggressive reaction to criticism.
Few people will argue that people enjoy thinking well of themselves and avoid criticism at all costs. We see this in every aspect of life. People seem to idealize themselves. Maybe this comes from the fact that since babyhood (or birth) all children have been video-recorded and see themselves on TV. Most adults, teens, and children have facebook pages so that anyone can look at their pictures and learn their profile which may lead to a tad bit of self-aggrandizement. And of course their are tweets, blogs, and websites to promote oneself further. Does all this maximize self-esteem? Of course it does. Well, unless it all backfires.
The Self-Esteem Maximizer seeks above everything else to avoid losing their self-esteem. They fear anything that will make them look in a bad or that could make others create a poor opinion. Therefore, people will avoid certain situations or certain people that might cause them to have to reappraise their high self-regard. This is one cause of aggressive reaction to criticism.
Few people will argue that people enjoy thinking well of themselves and avoid criticism at all costs. We see this in every aspect of life. People seem to idealize themselves. Maybe this comes from the fact that since babyhood (or birth) all children have been video-recorded and see themselves on TV. Most adults, teens, and children have facebook pages so that anyone can look at their pictures and learn their profile which may lead to a tad bit of self-aggrandizement. And of course their are tweets, blogs, and websites to promote oneself further. Does all this maximize self-esteem? Of course it does. Well, unless it all backfires.
Friday, August 19, 2011
YEARS OF PAIN
Economics is a backward looking science. Therefore it becomes advantageous to pay attention to those that work with the market to help us look into the crystal ball of the future...economic futurists. Many of these economic futurists are telling us that the times ahead are not going to be better. This does not mean that everything is lost and that all is bad so why not go out spending. No! This means that you can help to stave off some of the trouble by paying attention and preparing while you can. So let's take a calm approach and see what this means.
Terms:
Recession: Is a period of declining incomes and rising unemployment. When firms find they can't sell all their goods and services, they cut back on production. At which time, the firms lay off employees and unemployment rise. When the economy produces fewer goods and services GDP falls. When GDP falls the cycle of declining income and rising unemployment grow stronger.
Depression: Simply stated, it is a severe recession.
Sovereign debt: Is Central Banks throwing more money at debt through unsavory means (printing money is monetizing our own debt).
Economic growth: Means a higher standard of living for all of us. (Not likely)
The markets are fluctuating so severely due to the current fear of a more severe recession (double-dip).
Because:
1. Consumer confidence is plummeting.
2. Housing prices are declining again (more).
3. GDP in the past few years has been in consumer spending, healthcare and government spending. It has not been in production or areas for more growth.
4. Too much debt that can't be cured by more debt.
5. Government's continue to solve these problems with Central Banks printing more money which is causing further sovereign debt problems.
6. This plan is a bankrupt economic plan.
Result:
1. Unemployment will go up.
2. Inflation will rise.
3. Dollar will become worth less.
4. Fed will implement QE3...which will exasperate the whole cycle by dumping MORE dollars into the system.
Suggestion:
1. Buy Gold.
2. Buy Silver.
3. Have a stash of cash.
4. Stay informed.
5. Don't panic but be wise!
6. Do something to help prepare yourself for a declining future. Educate yourself.
7. We are in for some years of decline and pain.
Conclusion:
The system is in trouble. Prepare now.
Terms:
Recession: Is a period of declining incomes and rising unemployment. When firms find they can't sell all their goods and services, they cut back on production. At which time, the firms lay off employees and unemployment rise. When the economy produces fewer goods and services GDP falls. When GDP falls the cycle of declining income and rising unemployment grow stronger.
Depression: Simply stated, it is a severe recession.
Sovereign debt: Is Central Banks throwing more money at debt through unsavory means (printing money is monetizing our own debt).
Economic growth: Means a higher standard of living for all of us. (Not likely)
The markets are fluctuating so severely due to the current fear of a more severe recession (double-dip).
Because:
1. Consumer confidence is plummeting.
2. Housing prices are declining again (more).
3. GDP in the past few years has been in consumer spending, healthcare and government spending. It has not been in production or areas for more growth.
4. Too much debt that can't be cured by more debt.
5. Government's continue to solve these problems with Central Banks printing more money which is causing further sovereign debt problems.
6. This plan is a bankrupt economic plan.
Result:
1. Unemployment will go up.
2. Inflation will rise.
3. Dollar will become worth less.
4. Fed will implement QE3...which will exasperate the whole cycle by dumping MORE dollars into the system.
Suggestion:
1. Buy Gold.
2. Buy Silver.
3. Have a stash of cash.
4. Stay informed.
5. Don't panic but be wise!
6. Do something to help prepare yourself for a declining future. Educate yourself.
7. We are in for some years of decline and pain.
Conclusion:
The system is in trouble. Prepare now.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
A Gloomy Picture
The markets are displaying a severe case of bi-polar disorder, with rapid cycling on a bi-daily bases. Today the diagnoses came from Morgan Stanley that the U.S. and Europe are "dangerously close to a recession." For 4 weeks now the markets have been declining, with no sign of stabilizing. As the markets display weakness and volatility, fear and uncertainty grows creating a severe crisis of confidence. Faber stated that the "financial conditions are worse today than they were prior to the crisis of 2008." This is not a time for screaming that the sky is falling. Although, all signs point to the fact that it is. What is one to do in a crisis? Remain calm and assess the situation and then take the necessary steps for safety. If a recession is coming how can you prepare? That is what each person needs to decide for themselves. During a recession with high inflation it is hard to purchase new products. It is a time when those that are hit have to give up the luxuries. People even tend to give up their namebrands for generics. So this might be a good time to buy some of the necessities that you use the most and feel you can't do without. But do try to conserve as much a possible. Try to have a little bit of savings put ahead for that rainy day. If you have some investment money there is safety in gold. A few think it is a the next bubble. But most investors are running for safety to gold. It has been the best place for a safe haven for years. Today gold is at $1845 an oz. Yes, that does seem like a lot. Nevertheless, it is still predicted to go higher with all the world currency problems and bank funding and tightening squeeze. Plan ahead. Begin to cut back. Put some cash away. Buy gold (and silver).
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Eliminating Choice
In helping people to simplify life the choice architects want to make it easier for you by eliminating choice. The easiest way to eliminate choice is to place the option they want you to chose as the default option. Sunstein and Thaler in Nudge report that due to inertia (inactivity, sluggishness) in humans (Homers) it is important to set an easy button. The way to accomplish this is through the default option of a given choice that "there is a default option, an option that will be obtained if the chooser does nothing, then we can expect a large number of people to end up with that option, whether or not it is good for them" (2008). They continue to argue that it is noted through behaviorist that the tendency to do nothing can be enhanced if the default option is stated as representing the "normal or recommended course of action."
Public and private organizations know and use the powerful default option. Sunstein and Thaler say it is like a "dead man switch" on lawn mowers. (I believe we are the dead man in this scenario, if we continue to do nothing) Sunstein and Thaler believe that "required choice is favored by many who like freedom, as the best way to go." Thus, humans (also known as Homers) "prefer to have a good default...when choice is complicated and difficult." This is a built-in Homer proof choice that isn't really a choice as it has been chosen for you. But it does require that you do nothing. That is your freedom of choice. Because if you choose the default option the decision is already made for you by the choice architects. Thus, by eliminating choice and by doing nothing you are chosing, by default.
Public and private organizations know and use the powerful default option. Sunstein and Thaler say it is like a "dead man switch" on lawn mowers. (I believe we are the dead man in this scenario, if we continue to do nothing) Sunstein and Thaler believe that "required choice is favored by many who like freedom, as the best way to go." Thus, humans (also known as Homers) "prefer to have a good default...when choice is complicated and difficult." This is a built-in Homer proof choice that isn't really a choice as it has been chosen for you. But it does require that you do nothing. That is your freedom of choice. Because if you choose the default option the decision is already made for you by the choice architects. Thus, by eliminating choice and by doing nothing you are chosing, by default.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Strange Stats....
TV Viewing:
American adults watch 35.6 hours of TV a week.
Those over 65 watch 49 hours per week.
Cell Phone Uses:
83% of American adults have their own cell phone.
73 % use their cells for texting & taking photos.
54% use their cells for sending photos & videos.
44% use their phones mostly for accessing the Internet.
And 13% are just pretending to be on their cells to prevent interacting with people.
Preventing Another Financial Crisis:
The French now trust German Chancellor Merkel to fend off another financial crisis by 46%.
While they trust US President Obama 37% to stop another financial problem.
But they only trust their own President Sarkozy 33% to stop a new crisis.
American adults watch 35.6 hours of TV a week.
Those over 65 watch 49 hours per week.
Cell Phone Uses:
83% of American adults have their own cell phone.
73 % use their cells for texting & taking photos.
54% use their cells for sending photos & videos.
44% use their phones mostly for accessing the Internet.
And 13% are just pretending to be on their cells to prevent interacting with people.
Preventing Another Financial Crisis:
The French now trust German Chancellor Merkel to fend off another financial crisis by 46%.
While they trust US President Obama 37% to stop another financial problem.
But they only trust their own President Sarkozy 33% to stop a new crisis.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Aggressive Behavior
Learned social behavior is the theory that we learn social behavior by observing and imitating others. This theory has been observed in the learning to imitate aggressive behavior. Bandura (1997) experiments included the effect from watching an adult that was frustrated. Adults would take out the aggression on an inflated doll with punching, yelling, and kicking. Then pre-school children that had viewed the aggressive act would be told that they could not play with toys when they were in a room filled with toys. The children that had viewed the adult taking out their frustrations on the Bobo doll did the same when they became frustrated. But the children that didn't view the upset adults did not attack Bobo. From this study it was concluded that observing aggressive behavior would:
1. Lower children's inhibitions.
2. Teaches children ways to act aggressively when upset.
This makes us wonder and think about the negative or positive traits that can be learned in the family from mere observation. It also points to the question of viewing violence from television and video games and the learned social behavior children (and adults) are gaining through observation.
1. Lower children's inhibitions.
2. Teaches children ways to act aggressively when upset.
This makes us wonder and think about the negative or positive traits that can be learned in the family from mere observation. It also points to the question of viewing violence from television and video games and the learned social behavior children (and adults) are gaining through observation.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Just World Theory
This is a theory that we find many people using to explain the unexpected in life. People tend to seek answers as to why things happen. One explanation is that if people live good lives they will have good karma or blessings bestowed on them and will be reward for their good deeds and hard work. When bad things do occur, people tend to seek answers and often they will blame the victim for the bad luck that has come upon them. People will do this for two main reasons:
1. They want to believe that the world is fundamentally fair and just. In turn this will deflect their anxieties that bad things can just be random.
2. People also want to believe that the world is just and fair as it helps them to feel less vulnerable.
The world may not be predictable and definitely it is not always just.
1. They want to believe that the world is fundamentally fair and just. In turn this will deflect their anxieties that bad things can just be random.
2. People also want to believe that the world is just and fair as it helps them to feel less vulnerable.
The world may not be predictable and definitely it is not always just.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Social Comparison Theory
Social comparison is something we do everyday whether we like it or not. It is something we are just hard-wired for and it seems like it is a very hard thing not to engage in. We do it on a subconscious level all day long. Here is social comparison theory in a nutshell. It is the way we evaluate ourselves in comparison to others. It can cause us to have a good self-concept if we choose to do a downward comparison...with those that aren't as good looking, or as smart as, or as rich as, we are. Or it can cause us to feel extremely bad about ourselves if we do an upward comparison...with those that are movie stars, thinner or more muscular, or better off than us. It is how we even know about ourselves by comparing our self with others. Social comparison can make us feel better or it can make us feel worse depending on our comparison. We tend to always look and judge yourself in relation to others. But social comparison can have negative effects. It causes us to always be unsatisfied in life. It also leads us to do buy things so that others will think we are doing better than we actually are. For instance, the house that we couldn't afford, the car we can't afford, the clothes we can't afford, the memberships, the clubs, the gifts, and on and on it goes. For many women it leads them into unnecessary surgeries. And if you think about it all; it turns into this never-ending circle that we all engage in. But the more each one plays into it the more it continues on. Because everyone just upped the anty.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Perseid Meteor Shower
The annual meteor shower is the resulting debris from the comet Swift-Tuttle. Comet Swift-Tuttle was last seen in 1992 and before that it was last seen in 1862 by Swift and Tuttle. A comet is a small body composed of ice, dust and rock that orbits elliptically around our Sun. As a comet comes close to our Sun, it heats up and begins to melt the ice away which causes a tail to form which will always point away from the Sun and will even lead the comet as it reaches certain points around the Sun. When all the ice and dust is melt away the remaining rock from the comet become an asteroid. Asteroids also orbit our Sun and are smaller than a planet and are sometimes called minor planets (like poor demoted Pluto). Sometimes asteroids collide and when they do they shoot out particles of dust, rock, and rubble. The rubble is what we call meteoroids or more commonly, falling stars or shooting stars. This is what the Perseid Meteor shower is. It is the debris from the comet Swift-Tuttle.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Social Identity Theory
People receive part of their identity from the social groups that they belong to. This can be a key issue in a feeling of belonging. It is through a group affiliation that many people gain their self esteem. This self esteem is derived from belonging and interactions within the group. It is the feeling of being part of the "We" that comes with group membership. But with the territory can come a bias of superiority. This can lead to beliefs that the ingroup which they belong is better than the outgroup which others belong. Our social identity can cause us to categorize using heuristics about others. It also can cause us comparisons which tend to benefit our ingroup with a bias of privilege and favoritism. On the other hand, is it necessarily a bad thing to strive for belonging? After all we are social beings according to Aristotle.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Sky Skeltons
The market rebounded on Bernanke stating he would not raise the Interest till mid 2013. That calmed the markets and up the dow went to 429 pts. Since the controversy is sky high today I thought I would concentrate tonight on the constellations. So in brief:
1. The Bigger Dipper, also called the Big Bear and Ursa Major.
2. The Little Dipper, or Ursa Minor...or the Drinking Groud...contains the North Star.
3. Draco, the Snake or fiery dragon.
4. Hercules or the Phantom on his knees as known by the Ancients.
5. Orion, the Giant Hunter.
6. Orion's hunting dog...called The Big Dog, containing the brightest star as the head of the dog called Serius for scorcher. The Ancients thought it heated up the earth. The Sun and Serius in the sky at the same time became known as "The Dog Days of Summer."
7. Cepheus, The King. But in modern terms it is known as the house (sad).
Just thought we should look-up and know that there is a solid reality in the sky that does not change on peoples emotions.
1. The Bigger Dipper, also called the Big Bear and Ursa Major.
2. The Little Dipper, or Ursa Minor...or the Drinking Groud...contains the North Star.
3. Draco, the Snake or fiery dragon.
4. Hercules or the Phantom on his knees as known by the Ancients.
5. Orion, the Giant Hunter.
6. Orion's hunting dog...called The Big Dog, containing the brightest star as the head of the dog called Serius for scorcher. The Ancients thought it heated up the earth. The Sun and Serius in the sky at the same time became known as "The Dog Days of Summer."
7. Cepheus, The King. But in modern terms it is known as the house (sad).
Just thought we should look-up and know that there is a solid reality in the sky that does not change on peoples emotions.
Monday, August 8, 2011
$2 Trillion lost in the Markets Today
Oh my goodness! Were you watching the market today...? The Dow Jones dropped 634 pts. the biggest daily loss since 2008. The S&P drop over 6% with Bank of America down 20% today. The markets around globe fared as least as bad. What does the future hold? Some say that this sell-off was nothing but FEAR. Wilbur Ross stating that most markets around the world were down 10-15%, yet the world has not gotten worse or changed in the last 48 hours. He says the only thing that has changed is perception. Nevertheless, perception is a very important predictor of how the social influence will work to make that perception a reality. Is the U.S. losing it's prestige around the globe? Are we on an unsustainable fiscal path that might change our way of life? Have we become compromised as a world super power? I believe it can be summed up by an old Dylan song: A Hard Rain is Gonna Fall.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE FINANCIAL WORLD
There is a complete crisis of confidence around the global over the world economy. This has been brought on by many things but mostly over the downgrading of U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor's. Many investors, politicians, economists, and intelligentsia say "we are in uncharted waters." Oil is dropping, while gold is reaching new highs ($1702) and the dollar reaches all time lows. Some like Bill Gross (Pimco) think that S&P had "spine" to do what was needing to be done. But others like Roubini says that there is now a very real risk of double dip recession, stating that S&P's decision came at the wrong time. There is now a big worry for recession. Gold is now the unofficial world currency, as gold has risen over every other currency and is the best performing asset. The result of the ECB emergency meeting is that the Central Banks are willing to do whatever is necessary to stem the tide of trouble in Europe's troubled Spain & Italy. Italy is going to amend their constitution for radical austerity measures promising to liberalize everything they legally can. Meanwhile, London is in their second night of rioting and burnings as the citizens reject their austerity plans. What does all this mean? No one knows at this point. Nevertheless, Jim Rogers is confident that helicopter Ben will run the printing press as fast as he can to print money to delay the pain.
Personal Health Plan
With so much talk about the credit downgrade I thought I would switch gears and talk about applied social psychology and health. It is likely that most people are feeling nervous and concerned about what might be next for the economy, it is important to think of the effect of this negativity on our health. Applied social psychologists try to contribute to health and life expectancy through prevention techniques, helping people to change behavior and encouraging adherence to solid health practices. This can be done through motivation and self-efficacy (knowing you can do what is necessary). When people are confronted with health issues they wonder if there is truly a threat to them. Then they look at their own perceived vulnerability...family history, their own disease history, and they then tend to make a social comparison using unrealistic optimism. They play down the perceived seriousness of the threat or they begin to worry incessantly. In the case of addictions, they have to either change their behavior to avoid the potential risks or they must disengage from the belief that it will do them harm. After all it is not "soon nor certain."
One of the key aspects of changing the behavior is the intention to change the behavior (planned behavior theory). One of the greatest factors of determining if a person will change a behavior is whether they intend to change the behavior. That is the best predictor of actual behavior. Then the person must implement the intention by specifying when and where they plan to do so. This involves writing it down and making a plan. The next key factor to success or failure is if the person believes it is within their power to change the behavior (internal) or whether it is outside of their control (external situation). Here is the Trans Theoretical Model for changing an unwanted behavior:
1. Precontemplation stage: You think about it but not really motivated yet.
2. Contemplation stage: You think about it but put it in the future...you postpone.
3. Preparation stage: You set your plan, work out the details of how, when, and where and write it down.
4. Action stage: You do it. You start the change. Takes work and it is on your mind with lots of temptation to relapse. This is a very critical stage that takes social support from family and friends to encourage and allow for the change.
5. Maintenance stage: You have integrated the new behavior as a part of you and who you are and what you do or don't do now.
With this model of change it is important to go through each stage without skipping any.
Now I will tie this in to our economic woes. Maybe there are things that you are addicted to that is expensive and hard on your health. Maybe the stress of working longer due to losing a hunk of retirement is necessary and working out could benefit with stress reduction and more energy. Whatever the reason, you know if there are behaviors that could benefit your health, well-being, quality of life and longevity. Don't postpone...make your intention known by writing down your plan and make your health a priority...It is the one thing you can control.
One of the key aspects of changing the behavior is the intention to change the behavior (planned behavior theory). One of the greatest factors of determining if a person will change a behavior is whether they intend to change the behavior. That is the best predictor of actual behavior. Then the person must implement the intention by specifying when and where they plan to do so. This involves writing it down and making a plan. The next key factor to success or failure is if the person believes it is within their power to change the behavior (internal) or whether it is outside of their control (external situation). Here is the Trans Theoretical Model for changing an unwanted behavior:
1. Precontemplation stage: You think about it but not really motivated yet.
2. Contemplation stage: You think about it but put it in the future...you postpone.
3. Preparation stage: You set your plan, work out the details of how, when, and where and write it down.
4. Action stage: You do it. You start the change. Takes work and it is on your mind with lots of temptation to relapse. This is a very critical stage that takes social support from family and friends to encourage and allow for the change.
5. Maintenance stage: You have integrated the new behavior as a part of you and who you are and what you do or don't do now.
With this model of change it is important to go through each stage without skipping any.
Now I will tie this in to our economic woes. Maybe there are things that you are addicted to that is expensive and hard on your health. Maybe the stress of working longer due to losing a hunk of retirement is necessary and working out could benefit with stress reduction and more energy. Whatever the reason, you know if there are behaviors that could benefit your health, well-being, quality of life and longevity. Don't postpone...make your intention known by writing down your plan and make your health a priority...It is the one thing you can control.
Saturday, August 6, 2011
No Justifiable Rationale for U.S. Downgrade
Tim Geithner (Sec of Treasury) said that there was "no justifiable rationale" for the U.S. credit downgrading by S&P. The Omaha oracle, Warren Buffet, stated that Standard & Poor's had erred in lowering the credit rating. As well as, John Bellows (Acting Secretary for Economic Policy) joined in with Geithner and Buffet stating that it had been a math error on the part of S&P. They had added the same $2.1 trillion to a different baseline which changed the numbers considerably. Nevertheless, S&P acknowledged their mistake but changed their rationale from an economic justification to a political one. Consequently, this is having a huge negative effect in many ways. European Central Bankers are holding a crisis meeting to figure-out what this will mean to them and how to stem the tide of the tsunami that is already hitting their shores. Michele Bachmann wants Obama to fire Geithner (memo to Michele, Tim said on June 30th at the Clinton Global Initiative, that he was considering leaving the government sector after the collapse of Wall Street, Bear Sterns & Lehman Brothers in 2008, and now this federal debt debacle...he wants to go). So this might be a long week-end of wait and worry as we wonder how this will affect the global markets and our own markets on Monday. Whatever you do, don't watch the link below or you really might not be able to sleep.
http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2011_08_02_archive.html
http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2011_08_02_archive.html
Friday, August 5, 2011
MARC FABER OF THE GLOOM BOOM & DOOM REPORT
Marc Faber predicted the Crash of 2008. You might want to take a listen. He is worth the 8 mins.
MARC FABER CNBC VIDEO INTERVIEW AUGUST 5, 2011
The interviewer asks if this is the End Game...is it the collapse of Western Civilization as we know it? Is it the end of Capitalism?
http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2011/08/marc-faber-markets-has-experienced.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarcFaberBlog+%28Marc+Faber+Blog%29
MARC FABER CNBC VIDEO INTERVIEW AUGUST 5, 2011
The interviewer asks if this is the End Game...is it the collapse of Western Civilization as we know it? Is it the end of Capitalism?
http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2011/08/marc-faber-markets-has-experienced.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarcFaberBlog+%28Marc+Faber+Blog%29
S & P Cut Rating to AA+
When any disaster occurs it takes a few days to assess the damage. Now the statistical reports are coming forth to report that the US markets are facing more calamitous happenings. Standard & Poor's waited till the markets closed on Friday before they lowered the credit rating one level to AA+. They (like everyone else) are blaming the politics on the Hill for failing to cut spending enough to reduce the deficit.
The talk by the economists today (August 5) was one of telling everyone not to over react. They said the market was acting on emotion and needed to calm down as this was not the end. Nevertheless, the damage from this last week of declines is hard not to get emotional about.
1. Stocks fell the most in 32 months.
2. The S & P 500 fell 9.5 % in one week...yikes!
3. Bank of America is the biggest loser with loses of 13 %! Repeating: Bank of America fell 13%.
4. The Dow dropped 698 pts. in one week.
5. Over 2 Trillion wiped out.
If we go by prospect theory that losses are more painful than gains are pleasurable and that people give a higher negative value to a loss; then we know that this was a very upsetting week for many. The losses were catastrophic with many retirement funds taking a huge hit. And now with the US credit rating being lowered we will all feel this as our interest rates begin to climb. If you ask me, this has been a very bad year in so many ways...all the natural disasters of fires, floods, droughts, tornado's, and now financial crisis must be added to the list. All we can do is wait and see what tomorrow will bring. And thank goodness it is a week-end.
The talk by the economists today (August 5) was one of telling everyone not to over react. They said the market was acting on emotion and needed to calm down as this was not the end. Nevertheless, the damage from this last week of declines is hard not to get emotional about.
1. Stocks fell the most in 32 months.
2. The S & P 500 fell 9.5 % in one week...yikes!
3. Bank of America is the biggest loser with loses of 13 %! Repeating: Bank of America fell 13%.
4. The Dow dropped 698 pts. in one week.
5. Over 2 Trillion wiped out.
If we go by prospect theory that losses are more painful than gains are pleasurable and that people give a higher negative value to a loss; then we know that this was a very upsetting week for many. The losses were catastrophic with many retirement funds taking a huge hit. And now with the US credit rating being lowered we will all feel this as our interest rates begin to climb. If you ask me, this has been a very bad year in so many ways...all the natural disasters of fires, floods, droughts, tornado's, and now financial crisis must be added to the list. All we can do is wait and see what tomorrow will bring. And thank goodness it is a week-end.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Global Financial Meltdown..again!
They say when America sneezes the world catches a cold. Today has proven that cliche is true once again as we see the terrible illness that is infecting the world markets. The Dow Jones fell 512 pts. Marc Faber stated that the world has gone crazy with panic selling. He states the "whole world has gone mad!" The European and Asian markets tumbled more than we did today. Some were saying to get out of the way of the oncoming freight train. Many are predicting a severe recession and some say maybe depression. It appears that we are headed for some very bumpy times for awhile as the world economy is slowing down. That means there won't be growth. That means there will be more job loss. Some are predicting another crisis like 2008. Others are asking if it is now time to consider "global austerity?" (Austerity: severe, forbidding, without excess, luxury or ease, without ornament, simple, grave, sober, solemn, harsh, rough, and bitter)
Reasons for the severe downturn:
1. Already distressed markets.
2. Over-sold markets.
3. The fall-out from Capital Hill escapade.
4. Sovereign debt problems now spreading to Italy.
5. Worsening job market.
6. Lack of consumer confidence and spending.
The way the can has been kicked down the road makes me think that Ben Bernanke will ride in on his white horse and fire up the cannon with Quanative Easing 3. Although, most economist don't believe that QE 1 & 2 fixed anything. It has done one thing...postponed the PAIN. We will see what tomorrow will bring. But it doesn't look too good right now. Nevertheless, we did get beyond the 2008 crisis. And who would have thunk it!
Reasons for the severe downturn:
1. Already distressed markets.
2. Over-sold markets.
3. The fall-out from Capital Hill escapade.
4. Sovereign debt problems now spreading to Italy.
5. Worsening job market.
6. Lack of consumer confidence and spending.
The way the can has been kicked down the road makes me think that Ben Bernanke will ride in on his white horse and fire up the cannon with Quanative Easing 3. Although, most economist don't believe that QE 1 & 2 fixed anything. It has done one thing...postponed the PAIN. We will see what tomorrow will bring. But it doesn't look too good right now. Nevertheless, we did get beyond the 2008 crisis. And who would have thunk it!
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The Market Today
Is the market the pulse of the economy? Many think so! If this is the case then there are some points of interest from today's market report.
1. The market has made a 10% correction.
2. Bloomberg reported that yesterday a trillion dollars was lost in the drop in the market (8/2/2011).
3. There was so much selling today that the "circuit breakers" kicked in. (Circuit breakers were put in place to stop any stocks that fall more than 10 % in a 5 minute period as a result to the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010).
4. Gold has went up $70.00 since Monday.
5. They called the market today "a panic market" as it was dropping again today.
6. Companies were the biggest stock buyers today as they bought back their own stock as it was so cheap.
7. The Dow has had the lowest slide since 1978 with 9 straight days of losses...till today.
This is just one day of news in the market. Economists are worried that this "soft patch" may last and turn into a downward forecast for our economy. The lowering of our credit rating is still being considered. What does this all mean for you and for me? Time will tell.
1. The market has made a 10% correction.
2. Bloomberg reported that yesterday a trillion dollars was lost in the drop in the market (8/2/2011).
3. There was so much selling today that the "circuit breakers" kicked in. (Circuit breakers were put in place to stop any stocks that fall more than 10 % in a 5 minute period as a result to the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010).
4. Gold has went up $70.00 since Monday.
5. They called the market today "a panic market" as it was dropping again today.
6. Companies were the biggest stock buyers today as they bought back their own stock as it was so cheap.
7. The Dow has had the lowest slide since 1978 with 9 straight days of losses...till today.
This is just one day of news in the market. Economists are worried that this "soft patch" may last and turn into a downward forecast for our economy. The lowering of our credit rating is still being considered. What does this all mean for you and for me? Time will tell.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
United States Default...Not Today!
I always wonder what is really happening when the media and government keep our attention concentrated so uniformly on one topic. This past few weeks it has been agenda setting of "Will the United States default?" The media had the whole country whipped into a frenzy with worry and disgust. And alas, it has been kicked down the road till after elections. But the real question is whether the country is out of the woods over this or is it growing ever so much larger with unimaginable consequences?
Neel Kashkari (Managing Director for Pimco) reported to Bloomberg News that the economy has taken on so much debt over the past few years to "fuel consumption" that spending has now fueled a crisis. He believes that we need to restructure the economy towards savings and investment instead of spending and debt. He argues that the politicians need to be leaders instead of looking to the next election or checking the latest poll for what is popular. Kashkari argues that when government taxes an activity that society uses less of a certain activity like cigarettes or alcohol. He stated that when government wants people to work more and save more that they shouldn't be taxing income and savings. He also emphasized the need for a massive architectural change by considering Means testing. Means testing would eliminate those that have saved all their lives, that have high paying jobs and retirement from collecting Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. Regardless, that they have paid into the fund all their lives. I suggest that with the means testing and disqualification for entitlements that they should receive tax breaks on their retirement funds on scale according to amount of entitlement forfeited.
When asked if he felt the United States deserved a credit downgrade he said that the US has too much promised liability, stating that "with all the promises we have made out into the future it does not hold well for our fiscal situation." He says debt will be 85% of GDP by 2020 if cuts aren't made. As such he argues that without getting the economy growing again and cutting entitlements that "we will eventually get a downgrade from Standard and Poor's and Moody's." He believes that a downgrade could trigger a financial crisis as markets are believing in something that is proven untrue and could cause the markets to adjust violently as we saw with the housing bubble. Furthermore, and of great importance, is that the US Treasury Bonds are defined as the risk free financial instrument that underpins the entire global economy. If people wake up realizing that they have taken on too much risk it could de-stablize the whole global economy. Then the Central Banks around the world would be more diversified as to where they put their reserves by not putting them into the dollar.
And that is where all this could takes us. What would it mean if the dollar was not the reserve currency of the world? Many countries would like to see this and the Economist has reported that that is exactly what China is preparing for. So what have we accomplished by kicking the debt problem down the road...? There will be a day of when the piper calls. If we don't deal with this now with some pain, it could very likely become terminal for our nation.
Neel Kashkari (Managing Director for Pimco) reported to Bloomberg News that the economy has taken on so much debt over the past few years to "fuel consumption" that spending has now fueled a crisis. He believes that we need to restructure the economy towards savings and investment instead of spending and debt. He argues that the politicians need to be leaders instead of looking to the next election or checking the latest poll for what is popular. Kashkari argues that when government taxes an activity that society uses less of a certain activity like cigarettes or alcohol. He stated that when government wants people to work more and save more that they shouldn't be taxing income and savings. He also emphasized the need for a massive architectural change by considering Means testing. Means testing would eliminate those that have saved all their lives, that have high paying jobs and retirement from collecting Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. Regardless, that they have paid into the fund all their lives. I suggest that with the means testing and disqualification for entitlements that they should receive tax breaks on their retirement funds on scale according to amount of entitlement forfeited.
When asked if he felt the United States deserved a credit downgrade he said that the US has too much promised liability, stating that "with all the promises we have made out into the future it does not hold well for our fiscal situation." He says debt will be 85% of GDP by 2020 if cuts aren't made. As such he argues that without getting the economy growing again and cutting entitlements that "we will eventually get a downgrade from Standard and Poor's and Moody's." He believes that a downgrade could trigger a financial crisis as markets are believing in something that is proven untrue and could cause the markets to adjust violently as we saw with the housing bubble. Furthermore, and of great importance, is that the US Treasury Bonds are defined as the risk free financial instrument that underpins the entire global economy. If people wake up realizing that they have taken on too much risk it could de-stablize the whole global economy. Then the Central Banks around the world would be more diversified as to where they put their reserves by not putting them into the dollar.
And that is where all this could takes us. What would it mean if the dollar was not the reserve currency of the world? Many countries would like to see this and the Economist has reported that that is exactly what China is preparing for. So what have we accomplished by kicking the debt problem down the road...? There will be a day of when the piper calls. If we don't deal with this now with some pain, it could very likely become terminal for our nation.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Irrational Consumers
Sunstein and Thaler have assumed all of us are Homer Simpsons as they wrote their book Nudge. They have divided their explanations to those that are "econs" and the rest are considered "humans." Then they separate them into two different worlds....Econworld, where the Econs have no problem with difficult choices and Humanworld which is made up of the rest of us Homers. What this boils down to is that they (obviously from the Econworld) are worried that we (obviously from Hormerworld) "are least likely to make good choices." Their argument is to convince the choice architects of the necessity of our peril of choosing for ourselves. It is important for them "to design the choice environment and what kinds of nudges to offer, and how subtle the nudges should be." Sunstein and Thaler are concerned about our making choices that would bring us benefits now but the costs come later. These are considered investment goods and sinful goods. It is also a great concern for them that we can not make the difficult choices such as a mortgage but we are fine to decide upon coffee flavored ice cream or vanilla. Nevertheless, they do point out a few examples of restaurants that don't offer choice in selection but that the chef is authorized to make that choice for you. This is where they begin to steer the choice architects into limiting the options. "When people have a hard time predicting how their choices will end up affecting their lives, they have less to gain by numerous options and perhaps even by choosing for themselves." Then Sunstein and Thaler turn their concern on the markets and their fear that the free market system may not work for the "irrational consumer." This comes under their argument that there are situations that people are less likely to make good choices. They turn their attention to the "potential magic of markets and ask whether and when free markets and open competition will tend to exacerbate rather than mitigate the effects of human frailty."
We are at (or maybe beyond) the crossroad of change and free will. Sunstein and Thaler are proposing a new system or movement as they like to call it of Libertarian Paternalism that will take away our burden of choosing. They suggest (strongly) that choice needs to be limited and guided to save us from making a wrong choice. And they are writing books, teaching in colleges and holding key positions in government trying to persuade others that we are irrational choice makers and are not capable of decision making on our own.
We are at (or maybe beyond) the crossroad of change and free will. Sunstein and Thaler are proposing a new system or movement as they like to call it of Libertarian Paternalism that will take away our burden of choosing. They suggest (strongly) that choice needs to be limited and guided to save us from making a wrong choice. And they are writing books, teaching in colleges and holding key positions in government trying to persuade others that we are irrational choice makers and are not capable of decision making on our own.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Promoting Certain Behaviors
We all have personal behaviors that we would like to change. For instance, to lose some weight, to exercise more, to give up a bad habit, to incorporate a good habit and some personal "nudges" can be used to help an individual make changes in their own life. What concerns me is when we are unknowingly being "nudged" into behavior without our realizing it. When nudges is applied on us without our acknowledgement it is manipulation and control. It is the unknowing "nudges" that are being used on all of us that I am trying to make others aware of with this blog. That is why a great interest for this site is being promoting by so many others. Now hundreds are reading this blog daily to learn how to become more aware of others who are trying to use "nudges" to manipulate their behavior.
Priming: Activating particular associations in memory. Our memory is built on connections of associations, and priming is the awakening or activation of certain associations within our memory. Many experiments have shown over and over that priming one's thoughts, even without awareness of the person, can influence another thought and even action. Even subliminal priming can stimulate people into action, even when the priming was too brief to even be recognized and be perceived consciously. There is much of our social influence and information processing that is automatic. It is unintentional, and happens without our conscious awareness (Meyers). Sunstein and Thaler in Nudge encourage the use of priming by private, public, business and government sources to harness this social influence to become nudgers to "channel" certain behaviors. They say "sometimes the merest hint of an idea or concept will trigger an association that can stimulate action. These "primes" and their effects can be surprisingly powerful." Manipulations that are subtle can have an unnoticeable force for influence and change, and as such is playing with your subconscious in ways that you will never even know. But they do!
Priming: Activating particular associations in memory. Our memory is built on connections of associations, and priming is the awakening or activation of certain associations within our memory. Many experiments have shown over and over that priming one's thoughts, even without awareness of the person, can influence another thought and even action. Even subliminal priming can stimulate people into action, even when the priming was too brief to even be recognized and be perceived consciously. There is much of our social influence and information processing that is automatic. It is unintentional, and happens without our conscious awareness (Meyers). Sunstein and Thaler in Nudge encourage the use of priming by private, public, business and government sources to harness this social influence to become nudgers to "channel" certain behaviors. They say "sometimes the merest hint of an idea or concept will trigger an association that can stimulate action. These "primes" and their effects can be surprisingly powerful." Manipulations that are subtle can have an unnoticeable force for influence and change, and as such is playing with your subconscious in ways that you will never even know. But they do!
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Determinism or Free Will?
After struggling through a chapter on quantum physics I thought my brain would explode. I was wondering why the heck I had to learn about something so tiny that it mostly can't even be measured due to how small it is. But then at the conclusion of the chapter I realized that understanding this breaks down to two key theories in life...determinism and free will. I will explain by incorporating Occam's Razor rule that where two or more explanations exist for the same physical phenomenon, we should choose the simplest one...In other words: keep it simple!
The two philosophical theories that are in contradiction are Newton's Laws of Motion and quantum mechanics. Newton's Laws explained the principle of knowing the precise values of an object's position and momentum. In knowing this and the object's interactions with other objects, people could then predict exactly where things will be and how fast they will be moving for all times in the future. But, with quantum mechanic's Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, the location and motion of objects are only probable. This boils down to the two big debates of our time: Determinism vs. Free Will.
With Newton's theory the world is determined because the physical world is like a giant machine that continues on its predetermined course once it is set in motion. For those that ascribe to this belief the future is set in stone, it is totally predetermined by events that were set in motion along time ago. On the other hand, there is the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle which argues that the universe is not pre-determined due to the fact that the probabilities are not known on an individual encounter.
Einstein thought that the view of quantum mechanics was not known because it was not complete due to the fact that the scientists' just lacked information at that stage. But, Niels Bohr argued that when it came down to an individual electron it was not determined until the moment the electron actually struck the screen. He claimed that it was impossible to predict what would happen even if the scientists' had all the available information.
There you have it! I tried to keep it simple but I still thought you should know that there is purpose in understanding (briefly) quantum physics even if you aren't a scientists. This is the debate I have been discussing through out my posts with regard to applied social psychology and determinism by nudging. Social psychologists believe in a determinist world and they are out to figure out people's behavior in order to control it.
The two philosophical theories that are in contradiction are Newton's Laws of Motion and quantum mechanics. Newton's Laws explained the principle of knowing the precise values of an object's position and momentum. In knowing this and the object's interactions with other objects, people could then predict exactly where things will be and how fast they will be moving for all times in the future. But, with quantum mechanic's Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, the location and motion of objects are only probable. This boils down to the two big debates of our time: Determinism vs. Free Will.
With Newton's theory the world is determined because the physical world is like a giant machine that continues on its predetermined course once it is set in motion. For those that ascribe to this belief the future is set in stone, it is totally predetermined by events that were set in motion along time ago. On the other hand, there is the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle which argues that the universe is not pre-determined due to the fact that the probabilities are not known on an individual encounter.
Einstein thought that the view of quantum mechanics was not known because it was not complete due to the fact that the scientists' just lacked information at that stage. But, Niels Bohr argued that when it came down to an individual electron it was not determined until the moment the electron actually struck the screen. He claimed that it was impossible to predict what would happen even if the scientists' had all the available information.
There you have it! I tried to keep it simple but I still thought you should know that there is purpose in understanding (briefly) quantum physics even if you aren't a scientists. This is the debate I have been discussing through out my posts with regard to applied social psychology and determinism by nudging. Social psychologists believe in a determinist world and they are out to figure out people's behavior in order to control it.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Social Influence
Everyone thinks that they are authentic and autonomous and not following the crowd. Nevertheless, social influence has a huge effect on how people chose and how they act. Social influence leads to conformity. It is like a stampeding herd which no one knows how it got started nor which direction it will go. An excellent example of this is the Arab Spring. NO ONE KNEW that a small event in Tunisia would lead to leaders being overturned in governments through out the Middle-East. Who could have predicted the power of the social influence involved? Sure, there were many other factors that came into play, like the social media aspect of Facebook and Twitter. But aren't they social influences?
Social Influence is the power to change and influence people's thoughts, feelings and behaviors. This can be accomplished through imitation, conformity, compliance, obedience and persuasion. As Sunstein and Thaler would say: through social nudges.
Conformity is changing your behavior to fit in with a group. Some social psychologist contend that they can even predict when a person will conform according to a person's social expectation due to social norms. (I have been talking about this through-out my posts--scroll down for more information and connections)
Sunstein and Thaler in Nudge argue that culture, politics, economic decisions and advertising all rely on the notion of social influence. They state that "the effects of social influences may or may not be deliberately planned by particular people but small interventions and coincidences, at a key stage, can produce large variations in outcomes." The way this can be accomplished so easily is just to mention this is what "most people prefer" or "this is the most popular item" or "growing numbers of people are switching to" or this is the "top 5 searches on google." Then with this in mind, think of the power of the news stating the results of a Pew or Gallop poll. The power of social influence is immense. Therefore, people conform to what they think other people expect and what other people are doing. The sad thing about this (and there are many) is who starts the direction of the nudge? Where does it begin? If everyone is following or conforming, who is leading? Accordingly, it is the choice architects. It is the agents of influence and change. Are you down-loading a song because you know it is a good or because 546,000 others have downloaded that song, that video, etc. Just try to pay attention to how often someone... is trying to get you to conform and follow-the-leader. This isn't kindergarten, it is time to pay attention to the choices you are making.
Social Influence is the power to change and influence people's thoughts, feelings and behaviors. This can be accomplished through imitation, conformity, compliance, obedience and persuasion. As Sunstein and Thaler would say: through social nudges.
Conformity is changing your behavior to fit in with a group. Some social psychologist contend that they can even predict when a person will conform according to a person's social expectation due to social norms. (I have been talking about this through-out my posts--scroll down for more information and connections)
Sunstein and Thaler in Nudge argue that culture, politics, economic decisions and advertising all rely on the notion of social influence. They state that "the effects of social influences may or may not be deliberately planned by particular people but small interventions and coincidences, at a key stage, can produce large variations in outcomes." The way this can be accomplished so easily is just to mention this is what "most people prefer" or "this is the most popular item" or "growing numbers of people are switching to" or this is the "top 5 searches on google." Then with this in mind, think of the power of the news stating the results of a Pew or Gallop poll. The power of social influence is immense. Therefore, people conform to what they think other people expect and what other people are doing. The sad thing about this (and there are many) is who starts the direction of the nudge? Where does it begin? If everyone is following or conforming, who is leading? Accordingly, it is the choice architects. It is the agents of influence and change. Are you down-loading a song because you know it is a good or because 546,000 others have downloaded that song, that video, etc. Just try to pay attention to how often someone... is trying to get you to conform and follow-the-leader. This isn't kindergarten, it is time to pay attention to the choices you are making.
Adjustment Bureau
Tonight I want to do a short comment on the movie Adjustment Bureau. The movie was adapted from a Philip K. Dick story called Adjustment Team. Other movies that have been based on Philip K. Dick books are, Paycheck, Minority Report, Blade Runner, Total Recall, and Next.
Adjustment Bureau is one of the few movies I have seen recently that has a believable love story while relating information on the loss of free will and personal choice. The movie portrays an adjustment to the way people think when they get off the planned course. The movie makes you think (read my blog Thou shalt think) and perhaps wonder at the extent and length that the Adjustment Bureau might take to influence behavior to get the results or consequences that it is desired. The important lesson from this movie (if one is looking) is the way to change the outcome is to change and not conform. Many people today do not want to stand against the group even if they have to ignore the evidence of their own perceptions. Not only are people lead to think certain ways by framing and priming but they are afraid to go against the majority thought. Sunstein and Thaler argue in Nudge that "people will go along with the group even when they think, or know, that everyone else has blundered. Unanimous groups are able to provide the strongest nudges--even when the question is an easy one, and people ought to know that everyone else is wrong." They further state that "a little nudge, if it is expressed confidently, can have a major consequence for the group's conclusion. The clear lesson here is that consistent and unwavering people, in the private or public sector, can move groups and practices in their preferred direction." That sounds like an adjustment bureau to me.
Adjustment Bureau is one of the few movies I have seen recently that has a believable love story while relating information on the loss of free will and personal choice. The movie portrays an adjustment to the way people think when they get off the planned course. The movie makes you think (read my blog Thou shalt think) and perhaps wonder at the extent and length that the Adjustment Bureau might take to influence behavior to get the results or consequences that it is desired. The important lesson from this movie (if one is looking) is the way to change the outcome is to change and not conform. Many people today do not want to stand against the group even if they have to ignore the evidence of their own perceptions. Not only are people lead to think certain ways by framing and priming but they are afraid to go against the majority thought. Sunstein and Thaler argue in Nudge that "people will go along with the group even when they think, or know, that everyone else has blundered. Unanimous groups are able to provide the strongest nudges--even when the question is an easy one, and people ought to know that everyone else is wrong." They further state that "a little nudge, if it is expressed confidently, can have a major consequence for the group's conclusion. The clear lesson here is that consistent and unwavering people, in the private or public sector, can move groups and practices in their preferred direction." That sounds like an adjustment bureau to me.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Heuristics in diagnoses in psychology
In lecture I was taught that not only doctors make mistakes with their diagnoses but so do psychologists and psychiatrists. They also fall victim to making heuristics (quick decisions or short-cuts). One problem that occurs is the illusory correlation which is a psychological heuristic that involves seeing relationships one expects to see even when no such relationship exists. They can also error in confirmation bias which is presumptive questioning that will lead the interviewer to the diagnoses he or she seeks. This occurred frequently in the 1980's and 1990's with the onslaught of repressed memories diagnoses. It was done by the framing of the questions that leads the patient down a road of false memories until they seem to be real. And this in turn gives the proof of the diagnoses. Then the hindsight bias can occur which is the clinician feeling I-knew-it-all-along. This is not to say that this always happens but just that it can and does happen.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Representative Heuristics made by Doctors
Do doctors make the same mistakes in their thinking that Sunstein, Thaler and Shiller (and many others) say we all make? According to an article written in the New Yorker (1/29/2007) by Jerome Groopman...sadly they do. Groopman states that doctors have two or three diagnoses within minutes of meeting with the patient. The minute they walk into the room they are assessing your appearance, complexion, the way you hold your head, movements of the eyes and mouth, the way you sit or stand and your breathing. They make their diagnoses on "short-cuts or rules of thumb, known in psychology as heuristics." These heuristics or quick judgements can be the cause of "grave errors." Another mistake that doctors make is the representativeness error being influenced by what is "typically true." Doctors also can use what is known as the availability heuristic which is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event by the ease with which relevant examples come to mind. Then they rely on a confirmation bias which is finding problems that confirm what they expect to find by selectively accepting or ignoring information. They also can fall victim to what Shiller (last nights blog) calls wishful thinking or affective error in which a decision is based on what they wish were true because they like you or you remind them of themselves or they know you well.
Studies are being done on the way doctors think with a new field of study in this area. Groopman argues that doctors may not be the "dispassionate and rational actors that we think they are." Instead, doctors are susceptible to emotion and biases and make cognitive errors in judgement. Groopman quotes Dr. Croskerry (head of Dartmouth General Hospital) stating "currently in medical training, we fail to recognize the importance of critical thinking and critical reasoning. The implicit assumption in medicine is that we know how to think. But we don't."
This is an example of the many theories and terms and ways of thinking or not thinking that is taught and asserted by psychologists, applied social psychologists, policy makers and regulation czars. This article is worrisome to say the least. Besure to take a minute to look it up and give it a read so that you can read the many examples of doctors and their mistaken diagnoses. Well, that is if you have the stomach for it.
Studies are being done on the way doctors think with a new field of study in this area. Groopman argues that doctors may not be the "dispassionate and rational actors that we think they are." Instead, doctors are susceptible to emotion and biases and make cognitive errors in judgement. Groopman quotes Dr. Croskerry (head of Dartmouth General Hospital) stating "currently in medical training, we fail to recognize the importance of critical thinking and critical reasoning. The implicit assumption in medicine is that we know how to think. But we don't."
This is an example of the many theories and terms and ways of thinking or not thinking that is taught and asserted by psychologists, applied social psychologists, policy makers and regulation czars. This article is worrisome to say the least. Besure to take a minute to look it up and give it a read so that you can read the many examples of doctors and their mistaken diagnoses. Well, that is if you have the stomach for it.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Principles of Behavioral Finance
Tonight I want to explain a few terms that were quoted from Nudge in last nights blog. I am finding that these terms are used by many that are teaching, prompting or explaining behavioral economics, behavioral finance, and applied social psychology. Also, I find that my textbook, Nudge, and Dr. Robert Shiller (professor of economics at Yale, specializes in behavioral economics) all use basically the same examples to explain the concepts, as well. First, a word on Dr. Robert Shiller. He is the author of two books which (I believe) may explain the new movement mentioned by Thaler and Sunstein: libertarian paternalism regarding economics. His latest books are Irrational Exuberance and The New Financial Order. I mention Dr. Shiller because I will use his definitions of terms from his Open University course on Economics offered free of charge to anyone online (check it out...many full courses available).
Dr. Shiller states the principles of behavior finance are:
Wishful thinking: "people tend to make the error of believing what they want to believe, leading to biased probablility." An example of this kind of erronous thinking is believing your team will win or the candidate you voted for will win just because you want them to.
Attention Anomalies: "human attention tend to be sporadic, we make errors in attention." We give too much attention to some things while we pay too little attention to other things. Shiller argues that people tend to pay attention to what other people are paying attention to. Thus, we give excess attention to the media lead agenda setters (nudge). Consequently, we forget the details and specifics but remember generalities. My textbook calls this online judgement: judgement that is made at the moment that is processed and then is stored and determines our attitude formation and behavior.
Anchoring: "people make quanative judgements by subconsciously using some arbitrary stimulus. Then we tend to have over confidence in our anchored judgements...we think we know." Besure to look back at last nights blog to see how useful Sunstein and Thaler thinks anchors are. Remember anchors are placed and well-chosen nudges.
Representativeness Heuristics: "This refers to a human tendency to judge events on basis of similarity to other events that are prominent in our mind without regard to the actual probability of the event."
These key terms should help to inform you more closely of the mistakes we make in our assumptions that the choice architects, influence and change agents are counting on us making.
Dr. Shiller states the principles of behavior finance are:
Wishful thinking: "people tend to make the error of believing what they want to believe, leading to biased probablility." An example of this kind of erronous thinking is believing your team will win or the candidate you voted for will win just because you want them to.
Attention Anomalies: "human attention tend to be sporadic, we make errors in attention." We give too much attention to some things while we pay too little attention to other things. Shiller argues that people tend to pay attention to what other people are paying attention to. Thus, we give excess attention to the media lead agenda setters (nudge). Consequently, we forget the details and specifics but remember generalities. My textbook calls this online judgement: judgement that is made at the moment that is processed and then is stored and determines our attitude formation and behavior.
Anchoring: "people make quanative judgements by subconsciously using some arbitrary stimulus. Then we tend to have over confidence in our anchored judgements...we think we know." Besure to look back at last nights blog to see how useful Sunstein and Thaler thinks anchors are. Remember anchors are placed and well-chosen nudges.
Representativeness Heuristics: "This refers to a human tendency to judge events on basis of similarity to other events that are prominent in our mind without regard to the actual probability of the event."
These key terms should help to inform you more closely of the mistakes we make in our assumptions that the choice architects, influence and change agents are counting on us making.
Nudge-able
"People are nudge-able" according to Cass Sunstein, Obama's regulation czar. That makes him our choice architect, does it not? As I study applied social psychology in school and read Nudge simultaneously, I am amazed at the similarities. Nudge is how to do applied social psychology. I feel it is important to point out and emphasize the connections so that you might understand since it is likely that you may not be attending college and studying applied social psychology. My only goal is that you might understand and see if you approve of the new agenda setting. Nudge sets forth exactly what they think of you and what they plan to do and are doing to help you along. Here is some more of what Sunstein and Thaler say:
"One of our major goals is to see how the world might be made easier, or safer, for the Homers in each of us" (that is Homer Simpson).
" Most of us are busy, our lives are complicated, and we can't spend all our time thinking and analyzing everything."
"Anchors serve as nudges. We can influence the figure you will choose in a particular situation by ever-so-subtly suggesting a starting point for your thought process."
"Default options act as powerful nudges...setting the best possible defaults will be a theme we explore often in this book" (Nudge).
"Framing works because people tend to be mindless, passive decision makers."
"Choices, even in life's most important decisions, are influenced in ways that would not be anticipated." That is to say, "people are nudge-able."
"One of our major goals is to see how the world might be made easier, or safer, for the Homers in each of us" (that is Homer Simpson).
" Most of us are busy, our lives are complicated, and we can't spend all our time thinking and analyzing everything."
"Anchors serve as nudges. We can influence the figure you will choose in a particular situation by ever-so-subtly suggesting a starting point for your thought process."
"Default options act as powerful nudges...setting the best possible defaults will be a theme we explore often in this book" (Nudge).
"Framing works because people tend to be mindless, passive decision makers."
"Choices, even in life's most important decisions, are influenced in ways that would not be anticipated." That is to say, "people are nudge-able."
Saturday, July 23, 2011
The Emerging Science of Choice
Being a full-time student there isn't much time for reading anything except assigned reading. Nevertheless, I try to sneak-in a book I am interested in before I go to sleep. It helps me to relax and get my mind off of all the studying I need to do. I have been reading the book I mentioned in my blog called Nudge. Nudge is how to do applied social psychology. I feel this is so important to understand that I will be blogging on this for awhile. I believe that this is key to understanding the changing environment of choice and persausion. Thaler and Sunstein say that their information is based on the emerging science of choice...that would be the behavioral sciences. Which I won't go into again as they have been mentioned in previous blogs (also research B.F. Skinner for more information). The research is raising "serious questions about the rationality of many judgements and decisions that people make (see the New Rationality of Economics)." Thaler and Sunstein go on to say that "human decision making is not so great."
Furthermore, people tend to not really make choices but use the status-quo bias or default option. This bias suggests that most people "lack motivation or the ability to process information about choice alternatives" so they just select default so people don't have to make a selection for themselves. Sunstein and Thaler believe that this is a great power to be hijacked by policy makers (choice architects, influence and change agents) "that can greatly influence the outcome" by setting the default to create the behavior that is desired. More to the point, they state "the effects of well-chosen default options provide the gentle power of nudges; a nudge is any factor that significantly alters the behavior of Humans." It may be prudent to educate yourself on the power of nudges that are working to form and shape your decisions and your behavior. Remember, Sunstein and Thaler state this is a new movement and it is a science aimed at nudging you in their direction.
Furthermore, people tend to not really make choices but use the status-quo bias or default option. This bias suggests that most people "lack motivation or the ability to process information about choice alternatives" so they just select default so people don't have to make a selection for themselves. Sunstein and Thaler believe that this is a great power to be hijacked by policy makers (choice architects, influence and change agents) "that can greatly influence the outcome" by setting the default to create the behavior that is desired. More to the point, they state "the effects of well-chosen default options provide the gentle power of nudges; a nudge is any factor that significantly alters the behavior of Humans." It may be prudent to educate yourself on the power of nudges that are working to form and shape your decisions and your behavior. Remember, Sunstein and Thaler state this is a new movement and it is a science aimed at nudging you in their direction.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Tragedy In Norway
Tragedy: a lamentable, dreadful, or fatal event or affair; calamity; disaster.
Evil: morally wrong or bad; immoral; wicked, harmful; injurious.
Shameful: disgraceful; vile behavior; lacking any sense.
Shock: a sudden or violent disturbance of the emotions or sensibilities.
Sadness: affected by grief; sorrowful or mournful.
Sorrow: distress caused by loss, grief.
There is nothing that can be said at a time such as this. I am shocked and sadden by such horrific news from peaceful Norway. I am sorry. So very sorry for your sorrow and loss.
Evil: morally wrong or bad; immoral; wicked, harmful; injurious.
Shameful: disgraceful; vile behavior; lacking any sense.
Shock: a sudden or violent disturbance of the emotions or sensibilities.
Sadness: affected by grief; sorrowful or mournful.
Sorrow: distress caused by loss, grief.
There is nothing that can be said at a time such as this. I am shocked and sadden by such horrific news from peaceful Norway. I am sorry. So very sorry for your sorrow and loss.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Greek debt crisis solved! For now.
The markets had to get real ugly for France's Sarkozy and Germany's Chancellor Merkel to come to a compromise to stop the debt crisis in the EU from spreading. The solution was to create a new rescue fund called the EFSF which Sarkozy compared to the creation of a European Monetary Fund, somewhat like the IMF, only for European Union Members Only club. Well, members and wanta be's. The fund will also be available for troubled banks (that sounds familiar). The rescue for Greece is $229 billion (or $159 billion Euro's) and the new EFSF will have $440 billion Euro's. The exciting part for Greece is that they will get the bailout whether they default or not...only they will call it a selective default. The question is will this save Italy and Belguim, as well? Most likely.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Libertarian Paternalism
Libertarian paternalism seems a contradiction of terms. I have just started to read Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. I am still in the introduction but I have come across two terms that caught my attention as they so closely coincide with my blogs on applied social psychology. Then I did a brief search on the authors and found a few significant similarities.
The first term that caught my attention was choice architect. A choice architect is one that focuses attention of people in a particular direction. In my blogs I have often mentioned influence and change agents which do the same thing. A choice architect is one that chooses a particular option and influences others to it by nudging.
The second term of note is libertarian paternalism which the authors say is a new movement. It involves being free to choose. Yet, they describe paternalism as the legitimation for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior. Choice architects are both private and public people that "attempt to move people in directions that will make their lives better. A nudge is any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people's behavior in a predictable way." This is exactly what I have been blogging about. If you are new to this blog, it would be informative to scroll down and read past posts.
Now for a brief look at the authors. Both of whom are to be considered choice architects, as well as, influence and change agents.
Richard Thaler is a professor of behavioral finance at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He teaches behavioral science and economics.
Cass Sunstein is a professor of law and behavioral economics at the University of Chicago Law School. He is on leave at this time as he is currently an administrator for the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration. Take a second to think about this and the potential for choice architects to influence and change our behavior in a direction of predictability from the White House. The potential seems almost limitless. Also, remember the role that professors play in directing their students understanding and knowledge base. Now think about that influence in law and economics. Now you have it.
The first term that caught my attention was choice architect. A choice architect is one that focuses attention of people in a particular direction. In my blogs I have often mentioned influence and change agents which do the same thing. A choice architect is one that chooses a particular option and influences others to it by nudging.
The second term of note is libertarian paternalism which the authors say is a new movement. It involves being free to choose. Yet, they describe paternalism as the legitimation for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior. Choice architects are both private and public people that "attempt to move people in directions that will make their lives better. A nudge is any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people's behavior in a predictable way." This is exactly what I have been blogging about. If you are new to this blog, it would be informative to scroll down and read past posts.
Now for a brief look at the authors. Both of whom are to be considered choice architects, as well as, influence and change agents.
Richard Thaler is a professor of behavioral finance at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He teaches behavioral science and economics.
Cass Sunstein is a professor of law and behavioral economics at the University of Chicago Law School. He is on leave at this time as he is currently an administrator for the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration. Take a second to think about this and the potential for choice architects to influence and change our behavior in a direction of predictability from the White House. The potential seems almost limitless. Also, remember the role that professors play in directing their students understanding and knowledge base. Now think about that influence in law and economics. Now you have it.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Big Five Personality Factors
Political psychologists use the 'Big Five' personality traits to study political leaders. This theory is used the most and widely accepted. Although, it is customary to study personality through a questionnaire most presidents are not going to do such a thing. After all they really don't want to be read like a book, or seem so predictable. Part of their power is the mystery of who they really are. Nevertheless, political psychologists want to figure them out. So the next best thing to understanding them on an individual basis is to study their speeches, interviews, and biographers. It is not an exact science that is for sure, but it may shed some light on their personalities and help with predicting their behavior.
'Big Five'
1. Openness (curious and searching vs. consistent and cautious). Open to new ideas and experiences.
2. Conscientiousness (efficient and organized vs. easy-going and free spirited). Taking extreme care and thought in decision-making.
3. Extrovert (outgoing vs. solitary and reserved). Full of energy. Somewhat egotistical. People pleaser but not always in an honest way.
4. Agreeable (ccompassionate and understanding) Listens to others. Truly caring about others opinions.
5. Neuroticism (ssuspicious) Has odd relations with others. Suffers from delusions and misunderstandings.
The trait scores of the presidents showed that the strongest personality trait found in the living and dead presidents was openness. A study done by Rubenzer showed that Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln scored high on openness and greatness. In addition, it was decided that left and center left scored high on measures of openness. While those on the right scored high on conscientiousness. Does all this help us to know our presidents better and help us or the 'experts' to predict their behavior in certain situations? Maybe in a general way. But, probably not enough to know for sure.
Although, we can surmise from this study that since Obama is left on his political leanings that he would be open to new ideas and ways of doing business in and out of the White House. And he is. He certainly is inventive and has extremely unusual (non-conservative) ideas. Just look at the many changes he has made since becoming president. He is certainly open with our pocket books.
'Big Five'
1. Openness (curious and searching vs. consistent and cautious). Open to new ideas and experiences.
2. Conscientiousness (efficient and organized vs. easy-going and free spirited). Taking extreme care and thought in decision-making.
3. Extrovert (outgoing vs. solitary and reserved). Full of energy. Somewhat egotistical. People pleaser but not always in an honest way.
4. Agreeable (ccompassionate and understanding) Listens to others. Truly caring about others opinions.
5. Neuroticism (ssuspicious) Has odd relations with others. Suffers from delusions and misunderstandings.
The trait scores of the presidents showed that the strongest personality trait found in the living and dead presidents was openness. A study done by Rubenzer showed that Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln scored high on openness and greatness. In addition, it was decided that left and center left scored high on measures of openness. While those on the right scored high on conscientiousness. Does all this help us to know our presidents better and help us or the 'experts' to predict their behavior in certain situations? Maybe in a general way. But, probably not enough to know for sure.
Although, we can surmise from this study that since Obama is left on his political leanings that he would be open to new ideas and ways of doing business in and out of the White House. And he is. He certainly is inventive and has extremely unusual (non-conservative) ideas. Just look at the many changes he has made since becoming president. He is certainly open with our pocket books.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Conservative Social Psychologists? I think not.....
There is an enlightening video-presentation given by a social psychologist to a group of social psychologists that addresses the lack of diversity related to conservatives in the field. Dr. Haidt argues that the group is a "tribal-moral community" that has many taboos and danger zones. As such, they don't speak of "race differences, sex differences", they don't blame the victim, they watch for stereotyping and nativism." In this tribal group he tries to discover how many conservative social psychologist there are. He could only find 3 conservative social psychologists. He gives that a percentage of 0.03%. He admits that there are a few "closet conservatives" but they refuse to come out because they will not be allowed to publish their findings or do the studies they would like to do. He states that for claiming to be "super tolerant, free thinkers" that the group is very closed to conservatives and their ideas. He argues that in reality there are "taboos which constrain thinking, they won't allow for moral and political diversity and they create a hostile climate for non-liberal students." He believes that the field should set a goal for 10% conservatives by 2020. He argues that for social psychologists to have true diversity that they must be open to other perspectives that will "challenge their dormant ideas and be bold enough to let the conservatives pull them out of their ideological ruts!" Bravo to Dr. Haidt for his courage to tell the truth about his closed society that applauds their openness. His 25 minute presentation is called The New Synthesis in Moral Psychology. And thanks to my professor Dr. Ridge for making this perspective known.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Operational Code Theory
With political psychology, the study of the personalities of world political leaders is important to understanding how leaders will react to certain world events. The operational code is a cognitive approach that goes beyond the personalities of world leaders to their belief systems. Basically, it is narrowed down to their worldview of either harmony or conflict. It is through understanding the belief systems of the leaders that analysis can diagnose what decisions they will make in certain situations. "This theory complex specifies belief-based solutions to the puzzles posed by diagnostic, decision making, and learning processes in world politics" (Walker 2002). Most studies by political psychologists have focused on the national level of understanding. But this study was developed in 1953 during the Cold War to help understanding the antecedents of behavior of the Soviets to predict how they would react to certain events. It was believed that with this understanding of pre-behavior, or intentions through belief systems that political action could become predictable. This is just fascinating to say the least and it goes links into game theory.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Pro-Social Behavior and the Environment
Social psychologists and environmental psychologists team up to try to understand how to get people to be more conscious of their environment. It use to be that environmental psychologists focused on how the physical surroundings affected the people. But now it is how we affect the environment. Thus, applied social psychological theories are useful to understand the perceptions, feelings, and behaviour of people towards the environment and how to change the behavior to be more pro-social. This is done by first understanding what causes the behavior and what policies can be designed to promote and target the prior behavior for change. And, they want to see how effective the different interventions work.
There are many things that factor into being pro-social, pro-environmental. But I will mention values and how they relate to environmental concerns. First, there is NEP (no, this is not the Russians "New Economic Program" of the 1930's that confiscated all land & property also called NEP) it is the measurement of the fundamental beliefs and intentions that cause behavior called the new environmental paradigm (NEP).
Basically there are three value orientations.
1. Egoistic value orientation: which is that people try to get the best outcome for themselves like power, material wealth and ambition.
2. Altruistic value orientation: which is concern for the welfare of other people by caring about equality, social justice and helpfulness.
3. Biospheric or ecocentric value orientation: which reflects concern for non-human species and the earth and unity with nature.
Then policy makers use different theories of social controls to motivate people with rewards and/or punishments to encourage more pro-social/pro-environmental behavior. They use many of the techniques that I have mentioned in previous blogs. This is done through promoting pro-environmental behavior by first, interventions that target a person's perceptions, cognitions, motivations and norms. And second, they will use interventions that aim at changing the consequence.
There are many things that factor into being pro-social, pro-environmental. But I will mention values and how they relate to environmental concerns. First, there is NEP (no, this is not the Russians "New Economic Program" of the 1930's that confiscated all land & property also called NEP) it is the measurement of the fundamental beliefs and intentions that cause behavior called the new environmental paradigm (NEP).
Basically there are three value orientations.
1. Egoistic value orientation: which is that people try to get the best outcome for themselves like power, material wealth and ambition.
2. Altruistic value orientation: which is concern for the welfare of other people by caring about equality, social justice and helpfulness.
3. Biospheric or ecocentric value orientation: which reflects concern for non-human species and the earth and unity with nature.
Then policy makers use different theories of social controls to motivate people with rewards and/or punishments to encourage more pro-social/pro-environmental behavior. They use many of the techniques that I have mentioned in previous blogs. This is done through promoting pro-environmental behavior by first, interventions that target a person's perceptions, cognitions, motivations and norms. And second, they will use interventions that aim at changing the consequence.
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