40% OF THE S&P 500 GONE IN A DECADE

"THE BEST WAY THE PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO CREATE IT YOURSELF"

Peter's Law

 

So if you are planning to create the future, it is important to plan it and have excellent financial backing...you know, Venture Capital.  There are a group of people who are building your future at the Singularity University.  They will be holding a two-day conference in June 2014, in New York City.  The theme for this year is exploring exponential finance.  For exponential technologies are transforming every industry and are creating existential threats to most business, investments, client base and even Wall Street.  Exponential technologies are disruptive technologies coming for you at exponential rate. 

 

The people that want to predict and thereby create our future are those involved with the major technology companies.  Within this group is Singularity University and their aim is to prepare HUMANITY for ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE.  A very heady and presumptuous endeavor indeed.  This year the grad students and presenters are holding a 2 day conference in NYC, to explore exponential finance for their exponential technologies that will be transforming EVERY INDUSTRY and which could definitely mean threats to your business with the accelerated disruptive technologies. 

 

The point is that in the next 10 years 40% of the S&P (Fortune 500) companies will no longer exist due to exponential growth of disruptive technologies.  Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Synthetic biology and digital manufacturing (to name a few) will all be transforming how companies are started, how services are delivered and who invests in them.  Some examples of this exponential disruption are how I-Tunes destroyed the record store.  SKPE is working on ending land line for long distance.  Amazon has destroyed the bookstores.  Ebay is on its way to demolishing the local stores and Craig's List has killed the newspaper. 

 

We are fast heading towards a transformation of every aspect of our life.  We are being promised that all of this technological progress will benefit the whole world to meet the needs of everyone on the planet.  That sounds very Utopian.  There are many things to be aware of now.  The pace of acceleration is exponential.  How can we prepare for this?  Many years ago Alvin Toffler (Futurist) predicted that the rapid rate of change would cause a new disease called "FUTURE SHOCK."  Because people would not be able to keep up with how fast everything would be changing.  If we aren't there yet...I predict it is at our doors! 

 

BY THE WAY...Peter Diamandis (yes, that is the Peter of Peter's Laws) is Co-founder and Executive Chairman of Singularity U.

 

AND BY WAY OF INTEREST AND ALONG THIS SAME LINE:  Eric Schmidt (Executive Chairman of Google) was on Charlie Rose tonight, February 25, promoting his book to be available in paperback next week, THE NEW DIGITAL AGE: RESHAPING THE FUTURE OF PEOPLE, NATIONS, AND BUSINESS.    He said (lots) of significance to this post:

 

 "It's all about CREATING THE FUTURE!" 

 

 





TECHNOLOGY: CHANGING THE WORLD WE LIVE

 

Google Robot



The talk today on Bloomberg during Street Smart, was about how technology is in the process of COMPLETELY CHANGING the world we live in.

Again I want to mention Peter's Law:

 "THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO CREATE IT YOURSELF".

 

 This is what Joseph Sitt (Thor Equities Founder & CEO) had to say about the transitional era of technology that we are living in right now:

 

"We are about to hit technology 3.0.  We are now in the second or third age of technology.  Until now it was about technology changing the physical, and physical processing, and automating it.  So in things like manufacturing making it much more efficient and lowering the cost of production. P.S. (he said) that does hurt the jobs.  We are about to go through the MEGA CHANGE. It is going to be about robotics.  It is going be about mental technology.  And part of all that wealth that THE FAT CATS, the Googles, etc., are going to have BILLIONS AND BILLIONS of DOLLARS to invest and will invest it by buying robotic companies."

"Google buys 8 robotics companies in 6 months"  MoneyWatchDecember 16, 2013.

Robotics, of course, is not the only interest of the planning your future scenario.  Google acquired the well known futurist, Ray Kurzweil, a year ago to engineer their AI projects.  This is what was said about Kurzweil's project with Google:

"It’s all part of a rapidly evolving integration of human and artificial intelligence, which the author, scientist and inventor refers to as the Singularity. “We’re going to expand who we are. We’re going to become more non-biological,” Mr. Kurzweil said. The biological capabilities of the human mind are improving at a linear rate, while the non-biological capabilities of technology are increasing at an exponential rate. He predicts that by 2029, artificial intelligence will have human-like capabilities, which he refers to as the Singularity. Mr. Kurzweil says he doesn’t believe this will lead to a dystopian future, because those capabilities will be widely distributed among a wide variety of actors, rather than a small group of “evil corporations.”  BUT HE ADDS:

"Technology, Mr. Kurzweil conceded, always has been a double-edged sword. “Fire kept us warm … and fire burned down our villages!”

Ray Kurzweil believes that innovations in biogenetics and nanotechnology are creating a new future for humanity, leading toward a future event he calls the Singularity, in which man and machine finally merge.

More on Google's Kurzweil and "predicting the future!" http://www.ryot.org/googles-ray-kurzweil-predicts-future-believe/527265  and just a note from the webpage that hosts this piece:

"RYOT NOTE: It’s mind-boggling to imagine these actually becoming reality. One of the ways to ensure that technology continues to advance in the future is by educating younger generations. Youth For Technology marries education and technology, by partnering with low-income communities in the U.S. and with rural communities in developing nations to teach the youth how to use technology to solve problems."

And then there is Google's latest acquisition, DeepMind.  We aren't sure what this is yet.  But it sounds intriguing to say the least.  This is what the Economist had to say:

"As machine learning leaves the lab and goes into practice, it will threaten white-collar, knowledge-worker jobs just as machines, automation and assembly lines destroyed factory jobs in the 19th and 20th centuries. For example, the technique has been applied by researchers at Stanford University to tell whether a biopsy of breast cells is highly cancerous, something that until now has required a human expert to assess."

But one of the founders of DeepMind had some DEEP CONCERNS over possible misuses of this technology:

"Another of DeepMind’s founders, Shane Legg, has predicted that artificial intelligence running amok will be the biggest existential risk to humans in this century. Its founders have asked Google to set up an “ethics board” to consider the appropriate use of machine learning in its products. The creator of “Evil Genius” is ensuring that his new overlord sticks to its motto, “Don’t be evil”.

This is more examples of what is called DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION as explained in my last post, Disruptive Technologies could be coming for your job.  Also see who are the "Fat Cats" are that have billions and billions of dollars for investment in designing our future and their Brave New World in my post called Davos World Economic Forum: the times they are a changing.  

 



DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES could be coming for your job



As I have been watching Bloomberg LP, for the past few months there have been a lot of talk of disruption.  I think they held an entire conference or seminar on it.  The odd thing was that they kept using the word disruption as if it meant something GOOD.  So I thought I would do some research on disruption to understand how it meshes with something good.  For me, disruption means a break or creating a new way of doing things. 

The buzz word is actually disruptive innovation which has evolved from disruptive technology.  Disruptive is to break apart or rupture, to throw into disorder.  Or to be more specific, disruption is to interrupt the normal course.  And innovation is to introduce something new, either an idea or method or device.  So as you can guess, disruptive innovation is new technologies which will interrupt the old way of doing things for a completely new way.  For instance: the eight track is gone and we have I-tunes.  Your floppy drive is gone (or at least sitting in a box) and you use a flash drive. 

The difference between disruptive innovation (technology) and sustainable innovation is the later is static or on its way out.  Sustaining innovation doesn't create new markets but disruptive innovations does.  Here is a chart to easily show the difference:
                             

Sustaining:

An innovation that does not affect existing markets.

Evolutionary:

An innovation that improves a product in an existing market in ways that customers are expecting.

Revolutionary: (discontinuous, radical)

An innovation that is unexpected, but nevertheless does not affect existing markets.

Disruptive

An innovation that creates a new market by applying a different set of values, which ultimately (and unexpectedly) overtakes an existing market.

In many ways we all have purchased a disruptive innovation (technology) such as our mobile phones.  It is disruptive in that the mobile phone is replacing the landline.  And many of the apps on your cell phone will replace the brick and mortal stores.  (Sears is in trouble, JC Penney is in trouble..)  Another example is the e-books that everyone is buying for their Kindle or tablet.  (Libraries are beginning to go digital, bookstores are disappearing and tablets are on their way to replacing the PC).  There are many, many, many more disruptive innovations (technologies) that are well on their way to being the new revolutionary, must have "thing or device." 

So what is the big deal.  We like most of the disruptive innovations.  While these new devices are awesome and time saving they are continually causing us to spend and spend to get the new stuff and throw away our old stuff.  So we keep the wheel of the market ever turning which again is good, I guess.  Our economy counts on us spending to stay afloat.  So new, disruptive technologies and innovations fills the bill.  And another plus for the market is that not only do we pay for all the new devices but we usually have a monthly fee as well. 

But there may be some very large drawbacks to this disruptive innovation in that it is now coming after your jobs.  "Jobs such as factory and warehouse workers, paralegals, payroll administrators, office assistants and retail salespeople are but a few of the repetitive jobs that developers can write code for." 

But that's not all.  No, disruptive innovation, (as they like to call it) is also coming after upper-middle class jobs that require more thinking, reasoning, or remembering.  Through cloud technology many of the most skilled employees in sales, marketing and HR will slowly fad away.  All this will eventually affect many other aspects such as the University that students spend 4 years and a lot of dollars to get educations to get these jobs. 

So let me see if I have this...disruptive innovation will throw my life into disorder due to the introduction of new technology that can do my job instead of me.  Uhmm!  Then how will I have the money to buy the next, latest and best disruptive technology?